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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 13:04 Source

From the AFR comes RBS’s head of macro strategy in Asia, Greg Gibbs: …”Even though iron ore prices have been relatively stable since the last RBA meeting… the broader theme around commodities is quite soft,” said Mr Gibbs. “There’s a general bearishness around commodity currencies.” “It does suggest that the data is not all that bad and there’s not

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 12:50 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released trade data for the month of June, with Australia recording its biggest quarterly trade deficit in the post-GFC era. In the month of June, the trade deficit deteriorated to $2,933 million. The result still beat analyst’s expectations, however, who had expected a trade

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Renew Economy Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 12:46 Source

Obama's Clean Energy Plan will lift share of renewables to 28 per cent by 2030, and force closures of coal generators. But the fossil fuel lobby and conservatives are attacking the plan, labelling it an "energy tax", even though electricity bills will fall. Sound familiar?

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 12:36 Source

From the Goldman Sachs: And the winner is: Sydey (in the immortal words of Juan Antonio Samaranch)!

The post Australia’s infrastructure pipeline appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 12:23 Source

From the AFR: When Rio reports this week, analysts’ consensus is for underlying earnings to shrink to $US2.4 billion, from $US5.1 billion in the year-earlier period. …Despite the cash flow squeeze, Deutsche mining analyst Paul Young says savings from expected cuts to capital spend, from an already reduced target of $US7bn, and continuing cost cutting “should underpin another buyback in February 2016″. Rio

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 12:14 Source

From Reuters: The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges said in separate statements on Monday night that the rules, effective immediately, would prevent traders from borrowing and repaying stocks within a day. China’s exchanges and markets watchdog are cracking down on short-selling as part of a broad government-orchestrated effort to prevent a collapse in its markets, which

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 11:53 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales figures for the month of June, which registered a 0.7% seasonally-adjusted rise in sales over the month. Annual sales growth clocked in at a solid 4.9%: Consensus was for a 0.4% monthly rise, so sales easily beat expectations. The below chart

The post Retail sales beat on Budget sugar hit appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 11:42 Source

The communist casino is open:

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 11:33 Source

By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its stock on market figures for the month of July, which registered a 3.8% monthly Jump in the number of homes for sale, with for sale listings also up by 4.2% over the year (see below table). As shown above, all markets except Hobart experienced monthly rises

The post Stock on market surges in July appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 11:28 Source

After years of dismissive rhetoric Greg Hunt has left himself with almost nowhere to turn on climate action, aside from a range of measures his government has derided as taxes.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 10:03 Source

By Leith van Onselen The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research consumer confidence index continued to recover in the week ended 2 August, rising 0.4 points to 112.9 to be tracking around the long-run average of around 113 points (see next chart). Three of the survey’s five components improved over the week, with family finances up 3.61% to

The post Consumer confidence holds at average appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 09:49 Source

By Leith van Onselen In April last year, Treasurer Joe Hockey declared an end to industry assistance and warned that “no country has ever subsidised its way to prosperity”: The difficult decisions that will underpin our movement to a new age of responsibility must also include the corporate sector. Too many taxpayers’ dollars have been

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 09:44 Source

From the WSJ, on international investor’s waning enthusiasm for Aussie government bonds: The love affair is now cooling as investors sense the end of the global low-rate era. The U.S. Federal Reserve, in particular, is widely expected to raise rates from near zero as soon as September, a move likely to ripple through global bond

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Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 09:36 Source

The inquiry has been criticised for turning a blind eye to climate change with Labor concerned its recommendations would strangle the wind sector.

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Politically homeless Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 09:30 Source

Traditionally, an issue has popped up in the media, squadrons of journalists rush out with pre-prepared cliches to smother any public interest, and the issue dies and is replaced by another one. They may be weighty issues, they may not; but you can be sure that the media will churn through them.In recent years, editors and news directors have lost control of this media churn. The decline in consumption of traditional broadcast media means there's a strong correlation between social media users and the remaining readers/ listeners/ viewers of the broadcasters.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 09:22 Source

From the FT: US shale gas is the unexpected loser from President Barack Obama’s climate plan, as the White House abandons its previous enthusiasm for natural gas as a cleaner alternative to coal. …In its landmark plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, the Obama administration eliminated an earlier projection that natural gas

The post Obama hammers Australian LNG (updated) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 09:06 Source

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax’s Peter Martin believes negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement are close despite so-called final negotiations in Hawaii breaking down last week. According to Martin, “all it needs is for a few of the parties to give ground on a few sticking points and all 25 chapters are ready

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 08:57 Source

“The fundamental cause of trouble in the world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt”

Bertrand Russell

Basically I think that one of the problems with the world is that spend far too much time discussing the soap opera of politics and not enough discussing the substance.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 08:32 Source

By Chris Becker Risk appetites are tightening across stock markets as the latest ISM Manufacturing Index print last night and as oil prices continue to fall. A lack of inflationary pressures and stable wages are being reflected in bond markets as lower interest rate rise expectations. Greek financial markets opened for the first time in weeks and

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 08:04 Source

By Leith van Onselen It seems that a consensus is building around the proposal to cap superannuation retirement balances to no more than $2.5 million. As reported in Fairfax today, the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) first proposed the idea a year ago and since then it has been backed by the Actuaries

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 07:33 Source

From the Kouk: The federal budget is less than three months old and already Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann must be smiling like Cheshire cats with several of the key economic parameters stronger than assumed by Treasury in May. The budget bottom line will be getting a revenue wind-fall from the fact

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 07:00 Source

From Banking Day: The Australian Office of Financial Management will not conduct a fire sale to meet the Government’s deadline for divestment of its holdings of residential mortgage-backed securities. In the May Budget the Government announced that the AOFM would divest its RMBS holdings, valued at A$4.6 billion at the time. The AOFM’s plan is

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 06:16 Source

Today Martin North produced another of his excellent proprietory household surveys: Continuing our analysis of the latest DFA household surveys, we look at the investor segment. You can find our segment definitions here. We start by estimating the number of investors in the market. Overall, there are 2.16m households with investment properties, up from 2.01m in 2014.

The post Are the Sydney and Melbourne bubbles about to pop? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 06:00 Source

By Leith van Onselen Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its unemployment estimate for the month of July, which registered a 0.6% fall in the unemployment rate to 8.7% from 9.3% in May. Unemployment was also down 1.5% over the year (see next chart). Here’s a summary of the release: 12,673,000 Australians are in the

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 05:57 Source

The oil crash is starting to break down global bond markets. The short end is holding up on hope like that expressed by Jon Hilsenrath: Federal Reserve officials have fuzzy views on how wage growth fits in with their objectives for the economy. They would like to see wages growing faster. It would give them

The post Fed hawks fried appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 05:35 Source

Here are the iron ore charts for July 3, 2015: Qindao soared. Tianjin too up 4.5% to $55.30. Paper is flat with Dalian receding 2 points overnight. The rebar average bounce rolls on. Chinese iron ore port stocks fell 500k tonnes on the week. With this kind of port tautness, I very much doubt that

The post Daily iron ore price update (volatility) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 05:34 Source

And here my target is reached! Brent oil down 5% to $49.55 and right on support that looks tenuous at best: On the longer term monthly chart the supports are gone and we appear to be targeting a $40 long term support zone: That ought to be enough to really ratchet up pressure on US

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 00:02 Source

From UBS via FTAlphaville: We think that the unwinding of earlier foreign exchange liabilities and “arbitrage inflows” by domestic entities have contributed significantly to the recent large outflows. In the few years before Q2 2014, especially during much of 2013 and early 2014, as the expectation of RMB appreciation had been strong and the onshore-offshore

The post On Chinese capital flight appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, August 4, 2015 - 00:01 Source

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: How Libor whiz Rain Man became the guy everyone was going to blame – Reuters Review: ‘The Economics of Inequality,’ by Thomas Piketty – New York Times El-Erian: Why gold has lost its shine for investors – Financial Times One of tech’s biggest investors told us why he thinks

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Digitopoly Monday, August 3, 2015 - 23:21 Source

david-byrne-lampJust a decade or so since the music industry was disrupted by the digital world, it is well into another business model disruption over streaming. And like that previous disruption, it seems that artists are wondering where all the money is going.

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