Mindy suggested a thread on how the outcome of the election differed so much from most predictions. So here it is!

I think only one pundit in the MSM predicted a clear Coalition victory – David Penberthy of The Punch.

Almost everyone else seemed to think Labor would fall over the line.

As noted here at LP, there was a positive plethora of polls in the last week. Mark cautioned us against over-interpreting them, or treating them as predictors. Wise, it would seem! The much touted betting markets also didn’t prove their efficacy in aggregating either the “wisdom of crowds” or reflecting putative insider knowledge.

If there’s one thing this result cautions against, it’s putting much faith in alleged campaign professionals. Read more »