Sometimes markets are nothing more than denial machines. Iron ore prices are clearly bullish and set for a breakout. The basis of this could not be thinner. The price of 62% Fe grade iron ore fines from Australia delivered to China increased by US$0.80 to US$106.25. The rise was primarily driven by better market sentiment
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Australia’s housing market is turning subprime. The proof is everywhere. For more than a decade, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) flagged high loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) mortgages as a key risk area. For example, in December 2014, APRA released guidance stating that “ADIs should not undertake large volumes of, or increase their share of, higher-risk
Economists at one of Canada’s largest banks, Toronto-Dominion Bank, published a report assessing the impacts of the Canadian government’s “population freeze”, which aims to alleviate pressures on the nation’s economic and social infrastructure. Last year, the government introduced an immigration plan to right-size non-permanent residents (NPRs) and permanent resident (PR) targets to allow for some
For a government so intent on staying in power, versus making good policy, the neglect of energy markets has come to define it. The great Alboflation of 2022/23 was mostly via energy costs. The government massaged its way out of that by plundering taxpayers to provide rebates to taxpayers, a classic bait and switch. But
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The Market Ear on robots running wild for tech stocks. Perfection prevails NASDAQ extending the squeeze, approaching the upper part of the channel as RSI trades above 70 again. We are in overbought land again, but as we all know, things tend to stay in overbought/sold territory for longer than most think possible. Source: LSEG
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Risk markets fell back overnight as the long expected cut from the Federal Reserve was followed by a lot of cautionary talk by Chair Powell, indicating that this may well be the last cut for awhile as the push through effect of tariffs on inflation might stall further cuts. Wall Street flopped back while the
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DXY won’t go away. AUD pumped and dumped. Still running on the spot. CNY up! Gold and oil yuck. AI metals don’t care. RIO going parabolic. EM wants ATH, Tough with DXY. Junk rejection is a warning. As yields jackknifed on a not dovish enough Fed. AI doesn’t care. The Fed is confused. In support
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For months, I have argued that Australia’s job market is far weaker than it appears. Government-funded non-market jobs, particularly the expansion of the NDIS, have artificially propped up the job market. The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that government spending on “social protection”, which encompasses social security, welfare, and disability supports,
Wednesday’s CPI shocker, which saw annual trimmed mean inflation jump by 1.0% and 3.0% year-on-year, has shut the door on near-term interest rate cuts. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was looking for trimmed mean inflation of 2.6% at the end of 2025. To achieve this
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Looks like everyone but the Fed is going to raise interest rates soon with the latest local inflation figures surging and cutting all chances of a cut from the RBA in its November meeting while it seems the BOJ is also likely to start raising rates going into 2026. Asian share markets are somewhat mixed
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