In today’s AFR. It’s paywalled and I don’t have access (I’ve been promised a PDF) so here’s what I submitted, which may not be final.
Six months ago, Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers was planning legislation to remove his own power (never used, but always available until now) to over-ride decisions of the Reserve Bank. Now, he has not only decided to retain this power, but has openly criticised the Bank’s interest rate decisions as “smashing the economy”.
Stability leads to instability is China’s problem. Central planning has for so long hit growth targets via stimulus that its economy is now a debt-saturated laggard that spends so much repaying interest on unproductive assets that it can’t grow. Nowhere is this more obvious than local governments, so long the engine of outsized growth, and
The post China has hit Minsky’s iceberg appeared first on MacroBusiness.
About time. I’ve been humiliating Goldman’s commodity calls for two years. Now it has fully embraced the MB view. More selective, less constructive. While our 2024 Deficits Basket performed well this year, a softening of cyclical support to commodities leads us towards a more selective tactical approach to commodity investing. To be clear, we strongly
The post Goldman pukes commodities appeared first on MacroBusiness.
The always good fun Albert Edwards at Societe General. We have always exhorted our readers to watch Japan closely as it has consistently been a forerunner of major market moves (eg the late 1990s tech bubble started to deflate first in Japan). Until the implosion of the yen carry trade in early August, there was
The post Albert Edwards: More crash to come appeared first on MacroBusiness.
In the short term, gas imports into eastern Australia may lower prices. There is such a glut of global gas coming that the price ought to crash. Goldman: Europe’s scars from the 2022 energy crisis have yetto fully heal, as illustrated by its still depressed industrial activity, and its vulnerability to natural gasand electricity price
The post The false allure of gas imports appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Australia’s Q2 GDP was worse than economists expected, growing by only 0.2% over the quarter to be up only 1.0% year-on-year: The result missed analysts’ expectations of a 0.3% quarterly rise. It meant that Australia’s annual GDP growth rate fell to its lowest level since December 1991, outside of the pandemic. Australia’s population continues to
The Albanese government has been trying to focus on one thing — the cost-of-living crisis. Labor identifies the cost-of-living as the central concern among voters. However, new polling from RedBridge suggests that Labor is failing miserably to connect with voters on the cost-of-living issue, with only 24% of Australians surveyed stating that they could name
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has blamed restrictive planning for Australia’s falling dwelling construction rate. “House approvals are taking far too long to get through local councils and exacerbating Australia’s worsening housing and rental shortages”, claimed Mike Hermon, HIA Executive Director, Planning & Environment. “Planning systems across the country are buckling under the weight of
The GDP partials released on Tuesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that public sector spending is driving Australia’s economy. Total public demand is expected to contribute 0.4 ppt to the quarterly change in GDP, easily the largest contributor to the expected 0.3% quarterly growth: The lion’s share of public sector activity stems
Most opinion polls have federal Labor and the Coalition roughly neck-and-neck, with a hung parliament looking increasingly likely. We also know from the latest RedBridge polling that the Albanese government is failing to connect with voters over the cost-of-living, with only 24% of Australians surveyed stating that they could name a single thing that had
