The Market Ear says the latter. Real economic headwind Goldman sees tariffs as a real economic headwind—not just a headline risk. Higher prices may drag on real incomes, stalling consumption and growth. Add slowing hiring and trade data, and the stage is set for policy shifts and weaker GDP. But there is always a silver
The post US stagflation or rate cuts? appeared first on MacroBusiness.
As we know, the corrupt RBA won’t ever mention immigration, so it’s unable to forecast anything, least of all inflation. This has led to the RBA leading the economic charge backwards for well over a decade as it constantly worries about wage breakouts amid immense and permanent positive labour supply shocks that crush age growth.
The post Corrupt RBA completely lost appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate drops to 0.03% in June. Main drag coming from commodity prices, sentiment and hours worked. Detail suggests some near-term fragility if recent supports from financial markets, interest rate expectations and US growth fall away.. The recovery that was gaining traction through the second half of 2024 has
Donald Trump and his team reveal how panicked they are over surging Epstein cover up backlash and Congress seeking to have Ghislaine Maxwell testify publicly as they announce plans to set up meeting between Maxwell and the DOJ to get more information, which proves the DOJ closed the Epstein investigation without ever talking to his top accomplice. John Iadarola and Luke Beasley break it down on The Damage Report.
Later this year will be the 28th anniversary of the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, which saw an agreement struck to pursue emissions reductions and stabilisations. In the almost three decades since, the decline of thermal coal demand has been forecast repeatedly, only for demand to surge to new heights, largely driven by dramatic increases
In these times when the weather is turning crap, it's salutary to review history, that of our pre-war capitalists who, even before Hitler was chancellor, chose Nazism. Annie Lacroix-Riz is a historian incapable of leaving history alone. While the story of our past is engraved in stone by historical newsprints, she must erase, add, and shake things up.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has released a participants list for its upcoming Economic Reform Roundtable, which “is all about building consensus on long term economic reform, with a focus on resilience, productivity and budget sustainability”. The list comprises around 28 groups representing the business, industry, and academic sectors, as well as government representatives. The list is
The ferrous rocket flamed out yesterday. Miners are gapping into madness as the Pilbara killer cometh. At these prices, which will trigger a gusher of supply from India, iron ore needs more demand fuel from the Politburo. Colour me skeptical. Goldman. Ahead of the latest Central Urban Work Conference(CUWC), chaired by President Xi and attended
The post Iron ore gaps into madness appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Victoria has had the cheapest energy on the East Coast for many years. The VIC government likes to crow about it. But there is a problem. This is not renewable energy. VIC has had cheap energy thanks to abundant gas and brown coal resources, which still comprise 60% of output. Even worse, it is only
I specialise in a particular group of fossils which are extremely useful in determining the relative age of rock units in the upper half of the Cambrian System. There are not many of us around, with perhaps about dozen of us globally, with only two of us in Australia, the other one being in Adelaide. I write papers on this topic fairly regularly and submit them to a couple of journals.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shocked economists by holding the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.85% at its latest monetary policy meeting. The decision caught financial markets off guard, which had assigned a near 100% probability of a rate cut. The decision was a close call, with the board voting 6-3 in favour of
The post RBA given green light to cut interest rates appeared first on MacroBusiness.
I spent several years in a movement that goes by many names: the New Right, the populist right, Trumpism, postliberalism, national conservatism, working-class conservatism, common-good conservatism, and so on. Amid the chaos set off by the 2016 election, a set of writers, wonks, and political staffers spanning Washington D.C., New York, and Silicon Valley rushed to build an “intellectual” version of pro-Trump conservatism.
DXY is getting pounded again. AUD is up. Lead boots too. Gold surged. Oil caput. Metals mania! Even gave life to mining dogs. EM faded. Junk up. Yields down. Stocks paused. Instead of Trump mania, we got Bessent calm. Bloomberg. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered support for Jerome Powell amid regular attacks from Trump administration officials, saying he sees