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No, Kouk, Bozo Joe will not be smiling

August 4, 2015 - 07:33 -- Admin

From the Kouk: The federal budget is less than three months old and already Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann must be smiling like Cheshire cats with several of the key economic parameters stronger than assumed by Treasury in May. The budget bottom line will be getting a revenue wind-fall from the fact

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Are the Sydney and Melbourne bubbles about to pop?

August 4, 2015 - 06:16 -- Admin

Today Martin North produced another of his excellent proprietory household surveys: Continuing our analysis of the latest DFA household surveys, we look at the investor segment. You can find our segment definitions here. We start by estimating the number of investors in the market. Overall, there are 2.16m households with investment properties, up from 2.01m in 2014.

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Roy Morgan unemployment 8.7% in July

August 4, 2015 - 06:00 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its unemployment estimate for the month of July, which registered a 0.6% fall in the unemployment rate to 8.7% from 9.3% in May. Unemployment was also down 1.5% over the year (see next chart). Here’s a summary of the release: 12,673,000 Australians are in the

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Fed hawks fried

August 4, 2015 - 05:57 -- Admin

The oil crash is starting to break down global bond markets. The short end is holding up on hope like that expressed by Jon Hilsenrath: Federal Reserve officials have fuzzy views on how wage growth fits in with their objectives for the economy. They would like to see wages growing faster. It would give them

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Daily iron ore price update (volatility)

August 4, 2015 - 05:35 -- Admin

Here are the iron ore charts for July 3, 2015: Qindao soared. Tianjin too up 4.5% to $55.30. Paper is flat with Dalian receding 2 points overnight. The rebar average bounce rolls on. Chinese iron ore port stocks fell 500k tonnes on the week. With this kind of port tautness, I very much doubt that

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Daily LNG price update (oil crash)

August 4, 2015 - 05:34 -- Admin

And here my target is reached! Brent oil down 5% to $49.55 and right on support that looks tenuous at best: On the longer term monthly chart the supports are gone and we appear to be targeting a $40 long term support zone: That ought to be enough to really ratchet up pressure on US

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On Chinese capital flight

August 4, 2015 - 00:02 -- Admin

From UBS via FTAlphaville: We think that the unwinding of earlier foreign exchange liabilities and “arbitrage inflows” by domestic entities have contributed significantly to the recent large outflows. In the few years before Q2 2014, especially during much of 2013 and early 2014, as the expectation of RMB appreciation had been strong and the onshore-offshore

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Links 4 August 2015

August 4, 2015 - 00:01 -- Admin

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: How Libor whiz Rain Man became the guy everyone was going to blame – Reuters Review: ‘The Economics of Inequality,’ by Thomas Piketty – New York Times El-Erian: Why gold has lost its shine for investors – Financial Times One of tech’s biggest investors told us why he thinks

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ASX at the close

August 3, 2015 - 16:23 -- Admin

Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets A new week and a new month and there will be many in the market happy to see the back of July, although developed market equities generally did well. The key thematic we have been detailing of late has been an increasing focus on the start of

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Few “silver linings” in youth employment recovery

August 3, 2015 - 14:55 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Dr Patrick Carvalho, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS), has written an interesting article at Business Spectator on the nascent recovery in youth unemployment, which is showing green shoots: …underlying data shows youth unemployment has spiked not through outright lay-offs, but due to the positive activation of

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