Morgan has Labor on 53.5 percent, two party preferred, down 1 percent from a fortnight ago. Such a vote would give Labor a majority of thirty-eight or forty seats.
Labor is ahead in every state — South Australia 57 percent, Queensland 54 percent, New South Wales 53.5 percent (the result perhaps of the housing crisis and Hockey’s response to it), Western Australia 53 percent — except for Tasmania where the vote was 50-50.
Women favour Labor by 55.5 percent, down 1.5 percent from last time, and men 52 percent, up 0.5 percent from last time.
62 percent of eighteen-to-twenty-four year olds favour Labor; 62 percent of twenty-five-to-thirty-four year olds; 56 percent of thirty-five-to-forty-nine year olds; 52 percent of fifty-to-sixty-four year olds; and only 42.5 percent of of the over sixty-fives, three of whom died while you were reading this.
It is probable Labor lost some skin from the showing of The Killing Season and the raillery and mockery that followed it. But it is very likely that skin was regained, or most of it was, when Hockey said ‘get a good job’ and Abbott, admitting paying people smugglers to assist him in the kidnapping on the high seas of children and their dumping on a reef near Indonesia, which did not want them, said ‘by hook or by crook’; when the Pope said climate change was real, and urgent, and should be looked to; when the USA affirmed gay marriage as a human right and Abbott said Australia is different; and, oh yes, when Abbott threatened that ‘heads will roll’ at the ABC because of one sentence uttered by guest on a live programme unscripted.
It indicates that the Coalition cannot, now, win an election, early or late, under Abbott’s leadership.