8:00pm – Apparently we won’t get a Liberal vs Independent preference count in either Manly or North Shore tonight – so while we will know more once more primary votes will be counted, we won’t have a definitive answer as to who will win.
7:40pm – In North Shore, Liberal candidate Felicity Wilson is polling only 40.4% of the vote. Independent candidate Carolyn Corrigan is on 25.8% and the Greens’ Justin Alick is on 16.8%. Corrigan is in a stronger position than Ridge in Manly since more of the anti-Liberal vote is concentrated with the independent, and thus she will need less preferences. Corrigan needs at least 14.6% of the vote out of 33.8% polling for the Greens and other minor candidates. Bear in mind that a lot of votes will exhaust, and some will flow to the Liberal Party, so this doesn’t look as easy as it first sounds.
7:37pm – In Manly, Liberal candidate James Griffin is polling 41.2% of the primary vote, ahead of independent candidate Kathryn Ridge on 22.5% and Greens candidate Clara Williams Roldan on 20.6%. If Ridge stays ahead of William Roldan, Ridge will need about 18% preferences from about 36% of the vote which has gone to the Greens and other candidates.
7:30pm – This won’t be a thorough election night coverage tonight, but I might post a few comments. Labor has comfortably retained the seat of Gosford. The Liberal Party in Manly and North Shore are competing with independents for the seat. The Liberal vote has dropped to around 41-42% in each seat, with a leading independent polling just over 20% as the main competitor. We don’t have any preference distributions between the Liberal and independent candidates yet, so we can only guess how preferences will flow.