Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary

Queensland state redistribution – final boundaries released

June 1, 2017 - 10:00 -- Admin

The redistribution of Queensland’s state electoral boundaries concluded last Friday, and I’ve now finished my map of the electorates for download. You can download the map to use in Google Earth here.

I’ve also updated my calculations of the margins in each seat, which are at the end of this post. I estimate that there are 47 Labor seats, 44 LNP seats, as well as one KAP seat and one independent seat. On my first draft, I estimated 48 Labor seats and 43 LNP seats – unfortunately I appear to have made an error calculating the margin in Pumicestone, which resulted in me predicting it was a very marginal Labor seat – I now think it’s a marginal LNP seat, despite no change in boundaries. I feel confident this is the right result, although it doesn’t make much difference when the seat is as marginal as Pumicestone is.

As part of my calculations I’ve assigned every polling place to a new seat, and split up the special votes between the new seats, and this will be used as the basis for my guide to the Queensland election, due later this year.

Seat
Margin
Seat
Margin

Mansfield
ALP vs LNP 50.6%
Whitsunday
LNP vs ALP 50.7%

Bundaberg
ALP vs LNP 50.8%
Hill
LNP vs KAP 50.8%

Maryborough
ALP vs LNP 51%
Pumicestone
LNP vs ALP 50.8%

Mount Ommaney
ALP vs LNP 51.1%
Glass House
LNP vs ALP 51.4%

Springwood
ALP vs LNP 51.5%
Toowoomba North
LNP vs ALP 51.6%

Mundingburra
ALP vs LNP 51.6%
Redlands
LNP vs ALP 51.8%

Cooper
ALP vs LNP 53%
Aspley
LNP vs ALP 52.5%

Barron River
ALP vs LNP 53.3%
Bonney
LNP vs ALP 52.7%

McConnel
ALP vs LNP 53.5%
Everton
LNP vs ALP 52.7%

Keppel
ALP vs LNP 53.9%
Gaven
LNP vs ALP 52.8%

Mirani
ALP vs LNP 54.1%
Maiwar
LNP vs ALP 52.8%

Ferny Grove
ALP vs LNP 54.4%
Chatsworth
LNP vs ALP 53.5%

MacAlister
ALP vs LNP 54.9%
Hinchinbrook
LNP vs ALP 53.7%

Pine Rivers
ALP vs LNP 55.1%
Caloundra
LNP vs ALP 54.7%

Greenslopes
ALP vs LNP 55.3%
Theodore
LNP vs ALP 55.2%

Townsville
ALP vs LNP 55.6%
Lockyer
LNP vs ON 55.2%

Stretton
ALP vs LNP 55.7%
Burdekin
LNP vs ALP 55.4%

Thuringowa
ALP vs LNP 56.1%
Burleigh
LNP vs ALP 55.6%

Bulimba
ALP vs LNP 56.1%
Clayfield
LNP vs ALP 55.7%

Capalaba
ALP vs LNP 56.2%
Currumbin
LNP vs ALP 55.7%

Logan
ALP vs LNP 56.3%
Oodgeroo
LNP vs ALP 56.1%

Murrumba
ALP vs LNP 56.5%
Coomera
LNP vs ALP 56.1%

Miller
ALP vs LNP 56.7%
Hervey Bay
LNP vs ALP 56.6%

Cook
ALP vs LNP 56.8%
Noosa
LNP vs GRN 57.3%

Cairns
ALP vs LNP 57.4%
Burnett
LNP vs ALP 58.1%

Kurwongbah
ALP vs LNP 57.5%
Gympie
LNP vs ALP 58.1%

Redcliffe
ALP vs LNP 57.6%
Moggill
LNP vs ALP 58.2%

Algester
ALP vs LNP 57.7%
Kawana
LNP vs ALP 59%

Toohey
ALP vs LNP 57.8%
Toowoomba South
LNP vs ALP 59.1%

Bancroft
ALP vs LNP 57.9%
Southport
LNP vs ALP 59.9%

Nudgee
ALP vs LNP 58.6%
Mudgeeraba
LNP vs ALP 59.9%

Stafford
ALP vs LNP 58.7%
Maroochydore
LNP vs ALP 60.5%

Ipswich West
ALP vs LNP 59%
Mermaid Beach
LNP vs ALP 61%

Jordan
ALP vs LNP 59.6%
Gregory
LNP vs ALP 61.6%

Lytton
ALP vs LNP 59.7%
Scenic Rim
LNP vs ALP 61.7%

Mackay
ALP vs LNP 59.7%
Buderim
LNP vs ALP 61.9%

Sandgate
ALP vs LNP 59.8%
Callide
LNP vs PUP 62.2%

Morayfield
ALP vs LNP 61.5%
Broadwater
LNP vs ALP 62.8%

Gladstone
ALP vs IND 62.6%
Warrego
LNP vs ALP 65%

Mulgrave
ALP vs LNP 62.8%
Condamine
LNP vs ALP 66.8%

South Brisbane
ALP vs LNP 63.5%
Nanango
LNP vs ALP 67.9%

Rockhampton
ALP vs LNP 63.9%
Southern Downs
LNP vs ALP 69.2%

Waterford
ALP vs LNP 64.4%
Surfers Paradise
LNP vs ALP 69.6%

Ipswich
ALP vs LNP 64.7%
Ninderry
LNP vs ALP 71.4%

Inala
ALP vs LNP 69.7%

Woodridge
ALP vs LNP 74.1%
Nicklin
IND vs LNP 59%

Bundamba
ALP vs LNP 74.5%
Traeger
KAP vs LNP 65.8%