It appears that the Tasmanian premier, Will Hodgman, will today call the state election for March 3. For the first time since 2002, the Tasmanian election won’t coincide with the South Australian election, set for March 17.
Current polling suggests the Liberal majority government (holding 15 out of 25 seats) will struggle to maintain its majority (although they do still have a chance). The balance of power in a hung parliament would likely be held by the Greens, although we can’t rule out the possibility of the Jacqui Lambie Network winning a seat. As has become common in Tasmanian elections, both major parties have ruled out governing with the Greens, which could lead to a messy outcome if neither side holds a majority. Kevin Bonham discussed this prospect in a blog post yesterday.
I have published a complete guide to the Tasmanian election. Here are the links to the five seat guides:
Each guide contains a list of candidates (to be updated when nominations close), along with an electorate history, past results, breakdowns of results into sub-areas, and maps showing those results.
Tasmania’s state electorates normally follow the same boundaries as federal electorates, but it’s worth noting that the recent Tasmanian federal redistribution has not yet been implemented for state elections. So this will be the last election using an electorate named “Denison”, and the new boundaries will first be used for the next federal election and then for the Tasmanian state election in 2022. These boundaries will likely be replaced by the time of the 2026 election.
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