Some quick charts from the 2013-14 Budget papers. First, the revenue forward estimates and projections look far more plausible than they have in a long time. The last time the Budget revenue estimates have looked this plausible was MYEFO in 2009.While there has been quite a bit said about the size of revenue write-downs since the GFC, these observations should be contextualised with an assessment of the plausibility of past estimates and projections.
Dear reader, I am heading off for an extended blog holiday.
Over the last three to six months we are seeing shrinking sales across household goods, clothing/footwear, department stores, and cafes, restaurants and takeaways. In total, it looks like retail spending is flat-lining.In respect of the States, Tasmania is in a contracting world of pain, growth in a number of states is slowing, and Western Australia continues to grow well ahead of the others.
At 698, the Baltic Dry Index is bottom-feeding again (but still above its February 2012 minimum of 647).
The base chart:
Yesterday the RBA served up its credit aggregates for November 2012. From the first two charts we can see that lower interest rates are not translating into significant borrowing growth. The drop-off in the 6-month annualised line is particularly noticeable.
Another set of charts from the Q3-2012 National Accounts:
Just wondering about the fall-off in national savings ...
For those following my statistical exploration of opinion polls and related things psephological, they can be found on my new blog: Mark the Ballot.