Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary

Vic redistribution finalised – the end of Batman

June 20, 2018 - 17:20 -- Admin

The Australian Electoral Commission released the final decisions for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. Most of the changes were very minor, with no seats experiencing a large change in margin. The switch of Dunkley from Liberal to notional Labor has been maintained.

We have seen two changes in seat names. The seat of Cox has been restored to its previous name of Corangamite. While they noted the concern about the double-entendre in the name, the decision has supposedly been made due to the longstanding use of the name Corangamite.

The AEC is also renaming the seat of Batman in Melbourne’s inner north to ‘Cooper’. This name honours early 20th century Aboriginal leader William Cooper. The report specifically mentions his role in founding the Australian Aborigines League in the 1930s, and his protests against Nazi Germany in 1938. This is the culmination of a long campaign to abolish this seat name.

Overall we will see eight new seat names at the next federal election. Batman is not the only seat named after an early white settler to be renamed in part due to that man’s genocidal history – the seat of McMillan in eastern Victoria has been renamed ‘Monash’.

The announcement today just included descriptions of how the boundaries have been changed since the first draft. There are no maps and no data. So it’s possible there might be small errors in my margin calculations. I will put together the updated map over the weekend, although I’ll double-check the boundaries when the official map is released on July 13.

I also expect we’ll be getting the final boundaries for ACT and South Australia over the next week.

The table below the fold lists the margin in every Victorian seat, before the redistribution, on the draft boundaries and on the final boundaries. I discovered a small bug in my margin calculation code so there may be some small changes (around 0.1% in most cases) even where boundaries haven’t changed, but I’ve included the previously-published margins for transparency.

Seat
Pre-redistribution
Draft boundaries
Final boundaries

Aston
LIB 8.6%
LIB 7.6%
LIB 7.4%

Ballarat
ALP 7.3%
ALP 7.4%
ALP 7.4%

Bendigo
ALP 3.7%
ALP 3.9%
ALP 3.9%

Bruce
ALP 4.1%
ALP 14.2%
ALP 14%

Calwell
ALP 17.9%
ALP 19.7%
ALP 19.8%

Casey
LIB 6.1%
LIB 4.5%
LIB 4.5%

Chisholm
LIB 1.2%
LIB 3%
LIB 2.9%

Cooper (Batman)
ALP vs GRN 1%
ALP vs GRN 0.7%
ALP vs GRN 0.7%

Corangamite
LIB 3.1%
LIB 0%
LIB 0.1%

Corio
ALP 10%
ALP 8.3%
ALP 8.3%

Deakin
LIB 5.7%
LIB 6.3%
LIB 6.4%

Dunkley
LIB 1.4%
ALP 1%
ALP 1%

Flinders
LIB 7.8%
LIB 7%
LIB 7%

Fraser
New seat 0%
ALP 19.8%
ALP 19.8%

Gellibrand
ALP 18.2%
ALP 15.1%
ALP 15.1%

Gippsland
NAT 18.4%
NAT 18.3%
NAT 18.2%

Goldstein
LIB 12.7%
LIB 12.7%
LIB 12.7%

Gorton
ALP 19.5%
ALP 18.5%
ALP 18.5%

Higgins
LIB vs GRN 8%
LIB vs GRN 7.6%
LIB vs GRN 7.6%

Holt
ALP 14.2%
ALP 9.7%
ALP 10%

Hotham
ALP 7.5%
ALP 4.1%
ALP 4.2%

Indi
IND vs LIB 4.8%
IND vs LIB 4.9%
IND vs LIB 4.9%

Isaacs
ALP 5.7%
ALP 3.1%
ALP 3%

Jagajaga
ALP 4.7%
ALP 5.6%
ALP 5.6%

Kooyong
LIB 13.3%
LIB 12.7%
LIB 12.8%

La Trobe
LIB 1.5%
LIB 3.3%
LIB 3.2%

Lalor
ALP 13.4%
ALP 14.2%
ALP 14.2%

MacNamara (Melbourne Ports)
ALP 1.4%
ALP 1.2%
ALP 1.2%

Mallee
NAT 21.3%
NAT 20.1%
NAT 19.7%

Maribyrnong
ALP 12.3%
ALP 10.5%
ALP 10.4%

McEwen
ALP 7.8%
ALP 5.9%
ALP 5.9%

Melbourne
GRN vs LIB 18.5%
GRN vs LIB 18.5%
GRN vs LIB 18.5%

Menzies
LIB 10.6%
LIB 7.8%
LIB 7.8%

Monash (McMillan)
LIB 6%
LIB 7.5%
LIB 7.5%

Nicholls (Murray)
NAT vs LIB 24.9%
NAT 22.4%
NAT 22.1%

Scullin
ALP 17.3%
ALP 20%
ALP 19.6%

Wannon
LIB 9%
LIB 9.4%
LIB 9.1%

Wills
ALP vs GRN 4.9%
ALP vs GRN 4.9%
ALP vs GRN 4.9%