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NSW 2019 – close race analysis

March 24, 2019 - 19:48 -- Admin

At the end of Saturday night I had a list of seven seats which I hadn’t called. I have now done some further analysis with the extra votes that have reported today, and I am now ready to call a couple more seats and provide an analysis of the state of the count.

I have run through in detail the state of the count in Coogee, Dubbo, East Hills and Upper Hunter. I am ready to call Upper Hunter for the Nationals. My projections suggest that Coogee will go to Labor and Dubbo and East Hills will go to the Coalition, but I will wait for more results before calling either of them.

I will wait until we have a two-candidate-preferred count in Wollondilly before I call that race, but it also looks like it will go to the Liberal Party, with Judy Hannan needing to gain almost 20% of the vote in preferences from a pool of just over 40% of the electorate who voted for one of the other candidates.

I am going to call Coffs Harbour as I don’t believe the independent can catch the Nationals.

I will leave Lismore as it is for now, since there is more than enough preferences to close the gap between Labor and the Greens, but it seems most likely that Labor will win.

This leaves my seat estimate as:

  • Liberal – 33, plus leading in East Hills and Wollondilly
  • Labor – 34, plus leading in Coogee and Lismore
  • Nationals – 12, plus leading in Dubbo
  • Greens – 3
  • Shooters, Fishers and Farmers – 3
  • Independents – 3

So I have given the Coalition 45 seats, and have them likely to win in 3 others, which would give them a slim majority.

Coogee

Labor is currently sitting on 51% of the two-party-preferred vote, which is a lead of 606 votes.

We have 2PP counts from all but one election-day booth (we’re missing 1413 formal votes from Randwick Presbyterian). We also have primary votes but no 2PP figures from Coogee pre-poll (5558 votes).

We have just received both primary vote and 2PP figures from about 3000 iVotes and Bondi Junction pre-poll, which was helpful for the Liberal Party.

All three of these polling places are better for Labor on primary votes than the remaining election-day booths, which suggests that they should be more favourable for Labor on the 2PP, increasing their lead. I would guess that Labor would increase their lead by about 800 votes once these 2PP votes are counted.

We don’t know how may other votes are yet to be counted, but there doesn’t seem to be a huge number. We have received just over 3000 iVotes, compared to 4000 in 2015, but these votes are slightly favouring Labor, so will probably not have a big impact if there are more.

Labor is badly losing the first batch of postal votes, with just 36.2% after preferences. This is roughly the same as the postal vote in 2015, when Labor polled 37.1%. If there are as many postal votes as in 2015, you’d expect another 2000 votes. If these votes split in the same ratio as the early postal votes it would reduce Labor’s margin by about 500 votes.

We are yet to receive any absent votes. They favoured the Liberal Party by about the same amount as ordinary votes in 2015. If repeated this would mean they would have a minor impact. In my model 3400 absent votes would improve Labor’s position by 110 votes.

Votes left to count

  • 7581 formal votes yet to report 2PP from one election-day booth and one pre-poll booths, likely to favour Labor by about 680 votes.
  • Approx 1000 iVotes possibly yet to report, likely to favour Labor by about 80 votes.
  • Approx 2000 postal votes expected to report, likely to favour Liberal by about 500 votes
  • Approx 3400 absent votes expected, likely to favour Labor by about 110 votes
  • Net result – Labor lead increase from 606 to 976 votes

Dubbo

Nationals candidate Dugald Saunders leads independent Matthew Dickerson by just 125 votes in Dubbo (or 50.3% of the two-candidate-preferred vote).

We have received over 12,000 formal votes from the Dubbo pre-poll but no two-candidate-preferred figures. These votes were about 6.4% better for the Nationals than their primary vote on election day. This fits with the results in 2015, when Dubbo pre-poll was particularly strong for the Nationals. My model predicts the Nationals will increase their lead by 1700 votes on this batch.

We’re also waiting for pre-poll votes from Mudgee, Narromine and Wellington but these should all be much smaller than Dubbo and would likely help the Nationals by a small amount. I also expect relatively small numbers of absent and postal votes which would also help out the Nationals.

If the Dubbo pre-poll is as strong for the Nationals as I expect, that will likely decide this seat.

It’s worth noting that a bunch of these estimates are based on assumptions about the relative skew of different areas which may not hold up considering that the independent is a new factor.

Votes left to count

  • 12,319 formal votes from Dubbo pre-poll, likely to favour Nationals by about 1700 votes.
  • Expecting 5400 votes from Mudgee and Wellington pre-poll, favouring Nationals by 60 votes. Can’t estimate size or skew of Narromine pre-poll, but should have minimal impact.
  • Expecting 1900 absent votes, should favour Nationals by about 65 votes.
  • Expecting 600 more postal votes, should favour Nationals by about 100 votes.
  • Expecting just over 100 votes from Tomingley Hall, should favour Nationals by about 35 votes.
  • Net result – Nationals lead increase from 125 to 2125.

East Hills

Liberal candidate Wendy Lindsay is leading by 1006 votes, or 52%.

There are two booths yet to report any results: Bankstown West and Padstow Park. Bankstown West is very strongly pro-Labor but is quite a small booth. I estimate Labor will narrow the lead by 90 votes here. Padstow Park is much bigger but only slightly favoured Labor in 2015, so I estimate Labor will gain 50 votes here.

We have primary votes in Georges Hall, but are still lacking two-candidate-preferred votes. This booth is slightly leaning away from the Liberal Party, and I estimate it will only boost the Liberal lead by 10 votes.

We have primary votes from pre-poll booths in Bankstown and Revesby. I estimate Labor will gain 250 votes in Bankstown but the Liberals will gain 420 votes in Revesby.

We don’t have any pre-poll votes from the East Hill office. I estimate this booth will fall somewhere between the other two pre-poll booths and thus boost the Liberals by 100 votes.

I estimate there’s about 2000 more postal votes yet to report. The first batch favoured the Liberals. If the remainder flow at the same rate it will boost the Liberal Party by 450 votes.

Assuming there are 2500 absent votes (as in 2015) I’d expect Labor to gain 120 votes here.

Votes left to count

  • 8124 formal votes from Revesby pre-poll, which should favour Liberals by 420 votes.
  • 1809 formal votes from Bankstown pre-poll, which should favour Labor by 250 votes.
  • Pre-poll votes from East Hill office, which should favour Liberals by 100 votes.
  • Two-candidate-preferred votes from Georges Hall, Bankstown West and Padstow Park, which should favour Labor by 130 votes.
  • Another 2000 postal votes expected, which would favour the Liberals by 450 votes if they flow the same as the first batch.
  • 2500 absent votes expected, which should favour Labor by 120 votes.
  • Net result – Liberal lead increase from 1006 votes to 1476 votes.

Upper Hunter

Nationals MP Michael Johnsen is currently leading by 1033 votes, or 2.1%.

There are three booths yet to report the two-party-preferred count – Gresford Arts Hall, Scone High and Willow Tree Hall. I estimate these three booths will increase the Nationals lead by 250 votes.

There are also four pre-poll booths which have reported primary votes but not 2PP figures. I expect these five booths will provide a net boost for the Nationals of 515 votes.

I’m working on the assumption that there will be 3600 absent votes, as in 2015, and these votes would boost Labor by just 20 votes.

Finally I’m working on the assumption that there’s another 1500 postal votes, which I estimate would boost the Nationals vote by 300 votes.

Votes left to count

  • 1468 formal votes across three booths yet to report their 2PP figures, estimated to boost Nationals lead by 250 votes.
  • 15,000 formal votes cast at four pre-poll booths yet to report their 2PP figures, estimated boost the Nationals lead by 515 votes.
  • Expecting another 1500 postal votes, which I estimate will increase the Nationals lead by 300 votes.
  • Expecting 3600 absent votes, which would boost Labor by 20 votes.
  • Net result – Nationals lead increases from 1033 votes to 2078 votes.