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Senate count update – week four

June 12, 2019 - 09:00 -- Admin

We’re now halfway through the fourth week of counting for the Senate, and the count has got close to the finish line, although we only have a final result in the Northern Territory, where Labor and the Country Liberal Party each retained their one Senate seat without any need for preferences.

A few weeks ago I ran through each state and identified only one race, in Queensland, where seats were still in play. Since then the ALP has lost ground. While we will still need to wait for the distribution of preferences to know for sure, it seems likely that the last three seats will go to the LNP, the Greens and One Nation.

The current quotas for these groups are:

  • LNP – 2.74 quotas
  • ALP – 1.59
  • ON – 0.71
  • GRN – 0.70

One other point of interest from the Senate count is the informal rate. It’s not clear to me if there’s any formal votes still sitting in the informal pile – there certainly were a lot of formal votes incorrectly classified in the first counts after election day. The informal rate has dropped dramatically since those early counts, now sitting at 3.86%, down slightly from 3.94% in 2016.

State
2016 informal rate
2019 informal rate
Change in informal rate

ACT
2.21
2.32
0.11

NSW
4.53
4.25
-0.28

NT
3.33
3.64
0.31

QLD
3.40
3.22
-0.18

SA
3.33
3.51
0.18

TAS
3.48
3.64
0.16

VIC
4.20
4.26
0.06

WA
3.35
3.50
0.15

Australia
3.94
3.86
-0.08

Informal voting has slightly increased in most jurisdictions, although that was cancelled out by small declines in NSW and Queensland.

I should again emphasise that this informal rate is likely to drop a little bit more as the count continues, potentially getting below the 3.75% informal rate at the 2010 election.