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WA redistribution – margins published

February 14, 2020 - 12:30 -- Admin

It’s taken some time as I’ve waited for some necessary data, but I’ve now compiled my own margin estimates for the 59 state electorates in Western Australia following the recent redistribution.

I won’t lay claim to originality: both William Bowe and Antony Green have previously published their own estimates. Mine are very similar with a few exceptions where my figures differ from one or both of them. I’m not saying mine are necessary better than others but I thought I should publish them as they will be used as the basis for my maps and tables at the time of the election.

The table of margins is below the fold, along with a map.

Electorate
Old boundaries
New boundaries
Incumbent party

Albany
5.1
5.9
ALP vs NAT

Armadale
25.2
25.2
ALP vs LIB

Balcatta
5.8
7.9
ALP vs LIB

Baldivis
7.2
3.7
ALP vs IND

Bassendean
21.5
21.7
ALP vs LIB

Bateman
9.5
8.2
LIB vs ALP

Belmont
11.4
11.4
ALP vs LIB

Bicton
2.9
3.5
ALP vs LIB

Bunbury
10.8
11.1
ALP vs LIB

Burns Beach
2.5
4.3
ALP vs LIB

Butler
19.4
20.5
ALP vs LIB

Cannington
18.1
17.9
ALP vs LIB

Carine
9.0
10.6
LIB vs ALP

Central Wheatbelt
22.6
23.5
NAT vs ALP

Churchlands
13.2
11.7
LIB vs ALP

Cockburn
15.9
13.7
ALP vs LIB

Collie-Preston
14.7
13.6
ALP vs LIB

Cottesloe
13.3
14.1
LIB vs ALP

Darling Range
5.8
6.0
ALP vs LIB

Dawesville
0.7
0.9
LIB vs ALP

Forrestfield
9.4
9.4
ALP vs LIB

Fremantle
23.1
23.1
ALP vs LIB

Geraldton
1.3
1.3
LIB vs ALP

Hillarys
4.1
0.1
LIB vs ALP

Jandakot
1.0
2.0
ALP vs LIB

Joondalup
0.6
1.0
ALP vs LIB

Kalamunda
2.5
2.4
ALP vs LIB

Kalgoorlie
6.2
6.2
LIB vs ALP

Kimberley
13.0
13.0
ALP vs LIB

Kingsley
0.7
1.2
ALP vs LIB

Kwinana
18.1
21.0
ALP vs LIB

Landsdale
16.7
9.7
ALP vs LIB

Mandurah
18.0
18.1
ALP vs LIB

Maylands
17.9
17.9
ALP vs LIB

Midland
13.0
12.8
ALP vs LIB

Mirrabooka
19.2
23.5
ALP vs LIB

Moore
13.9
14.7
NAT vs LIB

Morley
11.4
12.5
ALP vs LIB

Mount Lawley
4.0
4.0
ALP vs LIB

Murray-Wellington
1.4
1.8
ALP vs LIB

Nedlands
8.3
8.1
LIB vs ALP

North West Central
9.5
10.1
NAT vs ALP

Perth
11.8
12.6
ALP vs LIB

Pilbara
2.3
2.3
ALP vs NAT

Riverton
4.4
4.4
LIB vs ALP

Rockingham
23.4
23.6
ALP vs LIB

Roe
14.4
13.6
NAT vs LIB

Scarborough
5.6
5.8
LIB vs ALP

South Perth
7.1
7.2
LIB vs ALP

Southern River
7.9
7.9
ALP vs LIB

Swan Hills
14.5
11.9
ALP vs LIB

Thornlie
15.8
15.8
ALP vs LIB

Vasse
14.7
14.7
LIB vs ALP

Victoria Park
16.5
16.3
ALP vs LIB

Wanneroo
7.3
8.9
ALP vs LIB

Warnbro
23.7
23.7
ALP vs LIB

Warren-Blackwood
13.4
12.9
NAT vs ALP

West Swan
17.1
19.2
ALP vs LIB

Willagee
15.5
18.1
ALP vs LIB