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WA state redistribution – boundaries finalised

December 3, 2023 - 13:00 -- Admin

The final electoral boundaries for the next Western Australian state election were released on Friday morning. The changes mostly replicated the draft boundaries released in July, although there were a few small changes, and some dramatic changes to two seats were mostly reversed.

In this post I’ll run through the major changes, what has changed since the draft map, and I’ve also included a map of the boundaries and tables of the result estimates (both primary votes and 2CP).

The seat of North West Central has been abolished, with its voters split five ways, with most of the voters split evenly between Mid-West (a new name for Moore) and Pilbara.

A new seat of Oakford has been created in the southern suburbs of Perth. The seat is made up of parts of Jandakot, Kwinana, Armadale and Darling Range. About 47% of the voters have come from Jandakot.

Four other seats have been renamed: Burns Beach has become Mindarie, Mirrabooka has become Girrawheen, Warnbro has become Secret Harbour and Willagee has become Bibra Lake. Two seats had been renamed in the draft but have reverted to their original name: Swan Hills and Carine.

I estimate that about 11.9% of electors have moved electorates, down from 13.1%.

Eight seats have been left without changes: Balcatta, Bateman, Bunbury, Cottesloe, Kingsley, Rockingham, South Perth and Southern River.

This map shows the 2025 boundaries in blue and the 2021 boundaries in red, but you can toggle those layers on and off, and can also show the draft 2025 boundaries in orange.

The main changes since the July draft have been in the northern suburbs.

The draft boundaries reorganised the seats of Carine and Hilarys from being roughly square in shape to the north and south of each other, into two long skinny seats running alongside each other (with Carine renamed Padbury). Those changes have been pretty much entirely abandoned, and with them Hilarys has become much stronger for Labor, and Carine has become much more marginal. The 2CP in each seat has changed by about 10%.

Labor’s position in Balcatta has become 1.4% stronger, and no other seat’s margin has changed by more than 1%. Overall 13 seats have changed their margin, but two of those only changed by 0.1%, so it’s possible these just reflect minor changes in my calculations, not real changes in voter distribution.

The margins feel a bit hypothetical, since the 2021 election was such a massive landslide to Labor. But for what it’s worth, the minor changes have flipped Churchlands back to Labor, after it become a notional Liberal seat on the draft boundaries. With the seat of North West Central (now held by a Liberal MP after she defected from the Nationals) abolished, the combined Liberal and National parties are back to a notional five seats.

It seems clear that there will be some swing back to normality in 2025. On the 2021 boundaries, a uniform swing of 23.4% was needed to deprive Labor of their majority. On the 2025 boundaries (both draft and final), that number is 23.1%. That isn’t much of a change and is largely hypothetical.

Finally, these tables show my estimates of the vote in each of the new seats.

Here are the two-candidate-preferred estimates per seat:

Seat
Old margin
New margin

Albany
13.7% ALP vs LIB
11.0% ALP vs LIB

Armadale
35.5% ALP vs LIB
33.8% ALP vs LIB

Balcatta
25.8% ALP vs LIB
25.8% ALP vs LIB

Baldivis
36.9% ALP vs LIB
35.7% ALP vs LIB

Bassendean
31.6% ALP vs LIB
31.5% ALP vs LIB

Bateman
6.7% ALP vs LIB
6.7% ALP vs LIB

Belmont
29.2% ALP vs LIB
29.2% ALP vs LIB

Bibra Lake (Willagee)
27.1% ALP vs LIB
28.0% ALP vs LIB

Bicton
15.6% ALP vs LIB
16.0% ALP vs LIB

Bunbury
22.5% ALP vs LIB
22.5% ALP vs LIB

Butler
32.2% ALP vs LIB
32.5% ALP vs LIB

Cannington
30.4% ALP vs LIB
30.6% ALP vs LIB

Carine
2.5% ALP vs LIB
2.9% ALP vs LIB

Central Wheatbelt
10.7% NAT vs ALP
9.2% NAT vs ALP

Churchlands
0.8% ALP vs LIB
1.2% ALP vs LIB

Cockburn
26.7% ALP vs LIB
28.0% ALP vs LIB

Collie-Preston
23.4% ALP vs LIB
23.1% ALP vs LIB

Cottesloe
7.4% LIB vs ALP
7.4% LIB vs ALP

Darling Range
13.5% ALP vs LIB
13.6% ALP vs LIB

Dawesville
13.9% ALP vs LIB
13.2% ALP vs LIB

Forrestfield
25.5% ALP vs LIB
22.6% ALP vs LIB

Fremantle
15.7% ALP vs GRN
12.1% ALP vs GRN

Geraldton
11.7% ALP vs NAT
9.2% ALP vs NAT

Girrawheen (Mirrabooka)
33.7% ALP vs LIB
33.5% ALP vs LIB

Hillarys
19% ALP vs LIB
18.8% ALP vs LIB

Jandakot
21% ALP vs LIB
18.0% ALP vs LIB

Joondalup
24.7% ALP vs LIB
25.4% ALP vs LIB

Kalamunda
11.8% ALP vs LIB
14.3% ALP vs LIB

Kalgoorlie
12% ALP vs LIB
11.4% ALP vs LIB

Kimberley
21.5% ALP vs LIB
21.5% ALP vs LIB

Kingsley
16.9% ALP vs LIB
16.9% ALP vs LIB

Kwinana
34.8% ALP vs LIB
38.1% ALP vs LIB

Landsdale
25.4% ALP vs LIB
25.5% ALP vs LIB

Mandurah
25.2% ALP vs LIB
24.3% ALP vs LIB

Maylands
29.3% ALP vs LIB
29.3% ALP vs LIB

Mid-West (Moore)
8.5% NAT vs ALP
8.4% NAT vs ALP

Midland
25.5% ALP vs LIB
26.7% ALP vs LIB

Mindarie (Burns Beach)
26.9% ALP vs LIB
27.8% ALP vs LIB

Morley
28.6% ALP vs LIB
27.9% ALP vs LIB

Mount Lawley
21.6% ALP vs LIB
21.6% ALP vs LIB

Murray-Wellington
17.2% ALP vs LIB
17.2% ALP vs LIB

Nedlands
2.8% ALP vs LIB
2.8% ALP vs LIB

North West Central
1.7% NAT vs ALP

Oakford (New seat)

28.0% ALP vs LIB

Perth
29.3% ALP vs LIB
29.3% ALP vs LIB

Pilbara
20.4% ALP vs NAT
18.5% ALP vs NAT

Riverton
9% ALP vs LIB
10.9% ALP vs LIB

Rockingham
37.7% ALP vs LIB
37.7% ALP vs LIB

Roe
11.1% NAT vs ALP
12.4% NAT vs ALP

Scarborough
10.4% ALP vs LIB
9.7% ALP vs LIB

Secret Harbour (Warnbro)
33.4% ALP vs LIB
31.6% ALP vs LIB

South Perth
10.1% ALP vs LIB
10.1% ALP vs LIB

Southern River
33.1% ALP vs LIB
33.1% ALP vs LIB

Swan Hills
27.1% ALP vs LIB
27.4% ALP vs LIB

Thornlie
30.9% ALP vs LIB
30.9% ALP vs LIB

Vasse
4.3% LIB vs ALP
4.8% LIB vs ALP

Victoria Park
27.8% ALP vs LIB
27.8% ALP vs LIB

Wanneroo
28.4% ALP vs LIB
28.4% ALP vs LIB

Warren-Blackwood
1.3% ALP vs NAT
2.4% ALP vs NAT

West Swan
34.2% ALP vs LIB
34.9% ALP vs LIB

And here are the primary vote estimates per seat:

Seat
Labor
Lib/Nat
Greens
Others

Albany
48.9
31.6
5.3
14.2

Armadale
73.0
8.9
4.8
13.3

Balcatta
66.5
18.8
7.6
7.0

Baldivis
79.1
9.1
3.7
8.1

Bassendean
71.0
12.3
7.9
8.8

Bateman
45.8
37.0
6.9
10.3

Belmont
70.4
16.1
7.0
6.5

Bibra Lake
65.9
17.4
10.2
6.5

Bicton
56.3
30.3
9.0
4.4

Bunbury
60.5
23.2
4.8
11.5

Butler
77.2
13.6
4.0
5.2

Cannington
71.9
13.0
6.4
8.8

Carine
44.8
44.0
8.5
2.7

Central Wheatbelt
34.8
54.3
2.2
8.7

Churchlands
40.0
43.5
10.2
6.3

Cockburn
69.8
17.6
6.2
6.4

Collie-Preston
61.4
23.5
4.1
11.1

Cottesloe
28.3
46.8
12.7
12.2

Darling Range
56.5
28.0
4.4
11.2

Dawesville
57.0
33.7
3.2
6.0

Forrestfield
65.4
22.0
5.0
7.6

Fremantle
55.4
16.4
20.1
8.1

Geraldton
52.3
39.3
2.6
5.7

Girrawheen
72.4
10.3
5.6
11.7

Hillarys
61.3
26.9
5.2
6.6

Jandakot
60.9
26.3
5.7
7.0

Joondalup
66.5
19.2
4.6
9.7

Kalamunda
53.7
29.4
8.6
8.4

Kalgoorlie
52.1
36.5
2.2
9.1

Kimberley
53.9
26.7
15.0
4.4

Kingsley
60.5
30.2
5.6
3.7

Kwinana
79.2
7.6
5.4
7.8

Landsdale
69.0
20.1
4.2
6.7

Mandurah
67.6
21.5
3.0
7.8

Maylands
62.0
15.6
16.1
6.2

Mid-West
34.0
54.9
2.7
8.3

Midland
66.8
18.3
6.7
8.3

Mindarie
71.1
17.6
5.6
5.7

Morley
69.3
16.6
6.4
7.7

Mount Lawley
59.0
23.4
11.1
6.5

Murray-Wellington
57.8
27.3
2.8
12.0

Nedlands
35.7
35.0
13.6
15.7

Oakford
70.7
16.8
4.3
8.2

Perth
63.5
17.8
16.1
2.7

Pilbara
58.9
28.3
3.8
9.1

Riverton
52.2
32.6
7.4
7.8

Rockingham
82.8
9.8
3.2
4.3

Roe
28.4
57.7
3.7
10.2

Scarborough
49.3
35.5
9.8
5.5

Secret Harbour
75.3
15.2
3.6
5.9

South Perth
49.9
35.4
10.4
4.2

Southern River
76.0
11.7
3.6
8.8

Swan Hills
70.9
18.3
4.0
6.8

Thornlie
74.1
13.9
4.9
7.1

Vasse
34.3
49.1
9.6
7.1

Victoria Park
63.7
16.2
12.6
7.5

Wanneroo
71.8
18.3
4.5
5.4

Warren-Blackwood
32.2
41.5
14.9
11.4

West Swan
78.7
11.2
3.8
6.3