This week in the markets saw a move towards the Coalition of around 2% points of implied probability of victory, with Centrebet and Betfair leading the push.  As a result, our all agency aggregate came  in on Labor having a 73.6% implied probability of victory and the Coalition sitting on 26.4%.

Before we get to the usual charts, Sportingbet and Sportsbet are both offering markets on the size of the swing to the ALP. If we aggregate the data coming out of those markets, this is what the implied probability is for a given swing to each party at the moment – where the red bars are a swing to the ALP and the blue bars a swing towards the Coalition: Read more »

Today was a very interesting comparison between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott that tells a lot about what their respective Governments would be like, and what type of campaign they’re running.

Both were in Melbourne, both made policy announcements. Both parties made policy announcements on crime, both mentioned knives. The ALP put out their policy through an announcement by Brendan O’Connor. You all know Brendan O’Connor right? Well if you’re his family and friends you do, the rest of us? Nup he’s effectively a nobody – sand that says a fair bit about how much importance the ALP is giving the issue. During campaigns many things are announced, but only the big ticket item get the leader’s stamp. Read more »

There is an episode near the end of the first season of The West Wing where due to a damaging leak from an advisor in the White House, and a general feeling that the Bartlet administration has been pretty poor, the staff become worried about the Government’s performance. The staff realise it is because they and the President have been too timid – too worried about the polls. There is a conversation between Bartlet and his Chief of Staff: Read more »

I don’t watch television, and I was sceptical about the innovation of ABC 24 News expecting it to be a race to the bottom, with Fox News as the model, yet I have to admit they seem to have done good on the question of mental health.

ABC Online reports:

Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced on Tuesday that a re-elected Labor government would spend $277 million to help people at risk of suicide.

And she said the Government would be willing to commit to a longer-term mental health plan, with the issue to be a second-term priority for Labor.

. . . Professor Mendoza has told ABC TV he is disappointed with today’s announcement.

“It’s well short of the mark,” he said.

“It’s not systemic reform. It fails the leadership test in my view.”

Brain and Mind Research Institute director Ian Hickie has told ABC News 24 the measures are just a big collection of small programs.

“It fails to go to real mental health reform,” he said. Read more »

This week’s Essential Report comes in unchanged from last week in all respects, with the primaries running 41/39 to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way. The Greens are on 13 and the broad “Others” are on 7. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1747, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

Additional questions this week looked at approval ratings, better PM, when people have or are likely to make up their mind on which party they are voting for, the interest in the election compared to previous campaigns and a cheeky little one on Costello as leader of the Coalition. These additional qurestions came from a sample of 1028, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.1% mark.

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Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard/Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister/Opposition Leader?

First the approval levels and approval strengths of Julia: Read more »