There was some interesting behaviour this week in the markets with Centerbet, IASbet and Sportingbet all having a nap, while Betfair had a small move towards Labor and Sportsbet went berko!

The “Any Other Party” on Sportsbet (read “Coalition”) moved from $3.80 to a whopping $4.70, while Labor pulled in to $1.18, down from its $1.25 last Friday.

Sportsbet has opened up the range of implied probabilities for a Labor victory to a substantially large 7.6% across the 5 agencies, with Centerbet having Labor on a 72.3% win probability and Sportsbet coming in at the other end of the spectrum on a 79.9% implied probability. Read more »

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 43 (up 1)/ 40 (steady) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – a one point gain to Labor since last week. The Greens and the broad “Others” are steady on 9 a piece. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1889, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

Additional questions this week covered which level of government the public believes should be responsible for an array of issues, perceptions of gender wage differentials in the workplace, why people vote the way they do at both State and Fed elections, as well as public opinion on Rudd’s national curriculum.

These additional questions ran off a sample of 1129, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

Do you think the following services should be mainly the responsibility of the Federal Government or State Governments? Read more »

This is an expanded version of something I wrote for the Crikey daily mail last week.

Does increasing consumer confidence boost the government vote? Orthodox wisdom would have us “yes” – good consumers are good government voters. If people are happy with their economic lot, if they’re happy with their economic expectations about the future, then they will – so the theory goes – reward the government for overseeing a fortuitous economic environment that boosts prosperity and their material well being.

However, the actual answer is somewhat different. Once upon a time there was indeed a strong relationship between consumer confidence and government political stocks -back in the boom/bust of the late 80’s and into the 1990’s recession period – and that probably explains why this myth is so enduring.

But a myth it generally is – at least in terms of the strength of the relationship – as we shall see. Read more »

Today’s Nielsen via the Fairfax press has the Coalition up 1 on the primaries and Labor steady to come in at 42/42, washing out into a two party preferred of 53/47 to Labor – a one point gain to the Coalition since last month. The Greens are on 9 (down 1) while the broad “Others” are on 5 (down 2). This comes from a sample of 1400, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark. You can see the full demographic tables here.

We’re going to do something a bit different today and look at approval ratings, preferred PM and win expectations by party vote. To start with, approval ratings for both Rudd and Abbott.

Read more »

The announcement today by Kevin Rudd at the National Press Club was a big one. It took the “political narrative” by the scruff of the neck and yanked it well and truly to that of the Government’s choosing. If the Opposition opens up Question Time on Monday with questions about insulation they will look like they are lacking policy on either health or education. They will have to go after Rudd (and Roxon and Gillard). Anything else is to abandon the playing field to the ALP in the two areas that will go a big way to determining the election.  Read more »