The result will be: ALP 74 LNP 71 GRN 2 OTH 4 CLIVE PALMER 0
which means a ALP Minority Government supported by two Greens, Andrew Wilkie and Rob Oakeshott. Oakeshott will become Speaker. You heard it here first.
How We Will Get There
The 2016 result was LNP 76 ALP 69 GRN 1 OTH 4
The post-election redistribution made two Victorian seats notionally ALP (Corangamite and Dunkley), additional seats were created in the ACT and VIC which are both notionally ALP, a SA seat held by Labor was abolished and Wentworth was lost by the Liberals to the Independent.
So the starting position for the 2019 poll (tomorrow) is: LNP 73 ALP 72 GRN 1 OTH 5
QLD – LNP will retain all their rural marginals and gain Herbert. ALP will gain Forde (Brisbane Metro)
VIC – ALP will gain Chisholm; GRN will gain Macnamara
WA – ALP will gain Swan and Hasluck
NSW – ALP will gain Gilmore. Oakeshott will gain Cowper from NAT; LNP will gain Lindsay and regain Wentworth
TAS – LNP will gain Braddon
SA, ACT, NT – No change
So that’s how you get to ALP 74 LNP 71 GRN 2 OTH 4 CLIVE PALMER 0 and Rob Oakeshott as Speaker.
The Swing will be 1.5%. ALP will get 51.1% of the vote.
Largish swings in Victorian seats Higgins, Kooyong and Deakin will not deliver ALP gains. Same for Warringah (NSW – Tony Abbott); Dickson (Peter Dutton) will be retained by the Libs. Farrer (NSW) will swing hard but Libs will retain. Indi (VIC) will be retained by the Independent. Casey (VIC – Tony Smith – Speaker in last parliament) will be retained with a swing against of less than 1% because he did a great job as Speaker and is popular traditionally moderate Victorian Liberal. Flinders (VIC) will be retained by Greg Hunt (Lib 7%) despite ex-Lib Julia Banks going there and runninf as an Independent and preferencing Labor
There are many – but LaTrobe in Victoria (Lib 3.2%), Pearce (WA Lib 3.6% – Christian Porter, the Attorney-General), Warringah (Lib 11.1% see above) and Petrie (QLD Lib 1.6%) – could give the ALP majority government (though Warringah would be IND not ALP).
What Chance This ?
ALP win 75 seats on the night then two weeks later win Warringah by 10 votes after a full recount. Tony Abbott delivers govt. to Labor !
Scott Morrison has studiously avoided assisting Tony Abbott in Warringah, hoping to rid himself of Abbott’s destructive destabilizing presence in the LNP Party Room. This is the second time Morrison has run dead on Abbott hoping for others to do his dirty work which is now an obvious ScoMo Modus Operandi.Modus Operandi.
The first time Morrison ran dead on Abbott was when Morrison failed to whip his numbers in support of Abbott in the leadership spill against Malcolm Turnbull. Abbott will not have forgotten this and, given Morrison’s current latest passive-aggressive effort to dud Abbott, if Abbott survives into the next Parliament (or even if he doesn’t) it will be Abbott’s sole raison d’etre to destroy Morrison. Ray Hadley too.