Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary

Federal redistributions finalised

August 2, 2021 - 15:10 -- Admin

The Australian Electoral Commission this afternoon published the maps and data for the final redistribution of Western Australia’s federal electoral boundaries. This follows the same publication for the Victorian redistribution last Monday.

The actual announcements for these redistributions were made previously, but we did not have maps or data until now, which has made it impossible for me to calculate margins or to publish maps (although I did make an attempt in the case of WA).

In this post I will publish my estimates of margin and primary vote for the larger parties, as well as maps showing the old and new boundaries for both states.

It will take me some time before I update the maps on my maps page, and then I will dive into publishing guides to the 54 federal seats in these two states.

I won’t be going into a lot of depth explaining the changes in this post – there’s a lot on.

First up, the margins:

2:11pm – And here are the estimated margins.

Seat
Old margin
New margin

Aston
LIB 10.1%
LIB 10.1%

Ballarat
ALP 11%
ALP 10.3%

Bendigo
ALP 9%
ALP 8.9%

Bruce
ALP 14.2%
ALP 7.3%

Calwell
ALP 18.8%
ALP 19.6%

Casey
LIB 4.6%
LIB 4.6%

Chisholm
LIB 0.6%
LIB 0.5%

Cooper
ALP vs GRN 14.6%
ALP vs GRN 14.8%

Corangamite
ALP 1.1%
ALP 1%

Corio
ALP 10.3%
ALP 10.3%

Deakin
LIB 4.8%
LIB 4.7%

Dunkley
ALP 2.7%
ALP 2.7%

Flinders
LIB 5.6%
LIB 5.6%

Fraser
ALP 14.2%
ALP 18.1%

Gellibrand
ALP 14.8%
ALP 13%

Gippsland
NAT 16.7%
NAT 16.7%

Goldstein
LIB 7.8%
LIB 7.8%

Gorton
ALP 15.4%
ALP 14.3%

Hawke
New seat
ALP 10.2%

Higgins
LIB 3.9%
LIB 3.7%

Holt
ALP 8.7%
ALP 8.9%

Hotham
ALP 5.9%
ALP 11.2%

Indi
IND vs LIB 1.4%
IND 1.4%

Isaacs
ALP 6.4%
ALP 6.4%

Jagajaga
ALP 6.6%
ALP 5.9%

Kooyong
LIB vs GRN 5.7%
LIB vs GRN 5.5%

La Trobe
LIB 4.5%
LIB 5.4%

Lalor
ALP 12.4%
ALP 12.4%

Macnamara
ALP 6.2%
ALP 6.1%

Mallee
NAT 16.2%
NAT 15.7%

Maribyrnong
ALP 11.2%
ALP 10.3%

McEwen
ALP 5%
ALP 5.3%

Melbourne
GRN vs LIB 21.8%
GRN vs LIB 21.8%

Menzies
LIB 7.5%
LIB 7%

Monash
LIB 7.4%
LIB 6.9%

Nicholls
NAT 20%
NAT 20%

Scullin
ALP 21.7%
ALP 21.7%

Wannon
LIB 10.4%
LIB 10.2%

Wills
ALP vs GRN 8.2%
ALP vs GRN 8.5%

O’Connor
LIB 14.5%
LIB 15.4%

Hasluck
LIB 5.4%
LIB 5.9%

Burt
ALP 5%
ALP 5.5%

Cowan
ALP 0.8%
ALP 0.9%

Brand
ALP 6.7%
ALP 6.7%

Forrest
LIB 14.6%
LIB 14.6%

Fremantle
ALP 6.9%
ALP 6.9%

Moore
LIB 11.7%
LIB 11.6%

Canning
LIB 11.6%
LIB 11.6%

Curtin
LIB 14.3%
LIB 13.9%

Durack
LIB 14.8%
LIB 13.5%

Perth
ALP 4.9%
ALP 3.2%

Pearce
LIB 7.5%
LIB 5.2%

Stirling
LIB 5.6%
Abolished seat

Swan
LIB 2.7%
LIB 3.2%

Tangney
LIB 11.5%
LIB 9.5%

Next up, estimates of the two-party-preferred vote and the primary vote for the big parties. Liberal and Nationals votes have been combined.

Seat
ALP 2PP
LNP 2PP
ALP prim
LNP prim
GRN prim

Aston
39.9
60.1
29.8
54.7
8.9

Ballarat
60.3
39.7
46.9
31.6
9.0

Bendigo
58.9
41.2
43.6
31.8
10.9

Bruce
57.3
42.7
48.1
35.7
7.6

Calwell
69.6
30.4
54.4
24.3
6.7

Casey
45.4
54.6
28.6
45.2
11.0

Chisholm
49.5
50.5
36.3
44.0
10.6

Cooper
76.2
23.8
46.9
19.6
20.9

Corangamite
51.0
49.0
35.8
42.4
8.7

Corio
60.3
39.7
47.6
33.9
13.1

Deakin
45.3
54.7
32.3
47.8
9.3

Dunkley
52.7
47.3
38.5
39.9
8.4

Flinders
44.4
55.6
24.7
46.7
6.8

Fraser
68.1
31.9
50.8
23.9
13.9

Gellibrand
63.0
37.0
49.1
30.8
13.9

Gippsland
33.3
66.7
23.2
54.0
6.0

Goldstein
42.2
57.8
28.3
52.7
14.0

Gorton
64.3
35.7
51.5
28.0
7.4

Hawke
60.2
39.8
44.1
29.4
7.4

Higgins
46.3
53.7
25.2
47.6
22.9

Holt
59.0
41.1
51.0
35.6
7.1

Hotham
61.2
38.8
50.8
33.3
8.9

Indi
37.3
62.7
12.1
44.5
4.2

Isaacs
56.4
43.6
44.8
35.2
11.2

Jagajaga
55.9
44.1
40.9
39.2
14.4

Kooyong
43.6
56.4
17.5
49.2
21.1

La Trobe
44.6
55.5
33.3
46.0
7.6

Lalor
62.4
37.6
51.6
30.1
8.0

Macnamara
56.1
43.9
31.8
37.5
24.0

Mallee
34.3
65.7
16.5
46.7
3.7

Maribyrnong
60.3
39.7
44.7
34.8
15.7

McEwen
55.3
44.7
39.8
35.0
9.5

Melbourne
67.8
32.2
21.1
21.2
48.1

Menzies
43.0
57.0
30.5
50.9
10.1

Monash
43.1
56.9
29.9
46.0
7.2

Nicholls
30.0
70.0
19.4
51.3
4.2

Scullin
71.7
28.3
60.4
22.3
6.7

Wannon
39.8
60.2
25.9
51.1
6.8

Wills
75.7
24.3
44.3
18.1
26.3

Brand
56.7
43.3
40.38
29.84
11.1

Burt
55.5
44.5
41.13
32.39
9.6

Canning
38.5
61.6
27.55
49.12
7.5

Cowan
50.9
49.1
37.84
40.02
11.1

Curtin
36.1
64.0
18.58
54.01
15.3

Durack
36.5
63.5
22.7
52.28
8.0

Forrest
35.4
64.6
21.15
52.48
12.8

Fremantle
56.9
43.1
38.02
34.97
16.0

Hasluck
44.1
55.9
30.3
44.16
10.8

Moore
38.4
61.6
24.74
51.52
12.1

O’Connor
34.6
65.4
20.61
55.59
8.2

Pearce
44.8
55.2
31.74
43.77
9.7

Perth
53.2
46.8
33.6
38.97
18.4

Swan
46.8
53.2
32.92
44.73
12.0

Tangney
40.5
59.5
27.93
51.34
10.9

 

Finally, this map shows the 2016-19 and 2022 boundaries for Western Australia:

And this map shows the 2019 and 2022 boundaries for Victoria: