Blogotariat

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NSW state redistribution finalised

August 29, 2021 - 11:30 -- Admin

The final electoral boundaries to be used at the 2023 New South Wales state election were released on Thursday, and I have now finished my new electoral map, along with estimates of margins.

You can download the Google Earth map file here.

Most of the changes between the draft and final boundaries were minor and didn’t involve much change. The main changes affected the western Sydney seat of Londonderry, both on its border with Penrith and Mount Druitt.

The Labor margin in Londonderry dropped from 3.9% to 3.0% between the draft and the final, and also dropped from 0.8% to 0.6% in Penrith. There were also small changes to The Entrance, Mount Druitt, Wyong and Sydney. No other change was detectable at the level of 0.1%.

Estimating margins is often made more difficult when the two-candidate-preferred counts don’t line up, particularly when the final count is not between Labor and the Coalition. NSW makes this a lot easier because they publish two-candidate-preferred counts at the booth level between every combination of candidates in a seat.

My margin estimate for Alex Greenwich in Sydney increased by 0.4% mainly due Lord Howe Island being put back into Port Macquarie after it was moved to Sydney in the draft. This estimate is a bit wobbly – I relied on the Liberal vs Greens margin for the areas added to Sydney from Heffron, Newtown and Port Macquarie, with the Greens acting as a proxy for Greenwich, but of course he is not a Greens MP.

The other issue worth noting is that I produced an incorrect margin for Cootamundra on the draft boundaries. I missed the Liberal two-candidate-preferred votes moved into Cootamundra from Goulburn. The 2019 margin in Cootamundra was 27.1%. I previously said that the new margin was 24.5%. It is actually 26.7% (both on the draft and final boundaries).

The following map shows the 2015-19 boundaries and the 2023 boundaries. You can toggle the boundary lines on and off, and separately toggle the seat names. Below the fold you can see my estimates for all 93 seats.

Electorate
Old boundaries
New boundaries
Party

Bankstown (abolished)
13.8

ALP vs LIB

Albury
16.0
15.9
LIB vs ALP

Auburn
9.1
13.4
ALP vs LIB

Badgerys Creek (Mulgoa)
11.3
9.7
LIB vs ALP

Ballina
5.4
4.9
GRN vs NAT

Balmain
10.0
10.0
GRN vs ALP

Bankstown (Lakemba)
22.4
20.5
ALP vs LIB

Barwon
6.6
6.6
SFF vs NAT

Bathurst
17.9
17.9
NAT vs ALP

Bega
6.9
6.9
LIB vs ALP

Blacktown
17.7
16.6
ALP vs LIB

Blue Mountains
14.9
13.6
ALP vs LIB

Cabramatta
12.9
12.0
ALP vs IND

Camden
7.6
7.4
LIB vs ALP

Campbelltown
17.0
16.3
ALP vs LIB

Canterbury
13.0
15.6
ALP vs LIB

Castle Hill (Baulkham Hills)
18.7
22.4
LIB vs ALP

Cessnock
19.3
19.8
ALP vs NAT

Charlestown
12.4
13.0
ALP vs NAT

Clarence
14.5
14.5
NAT vs ALP

Coffs Harbour
10.8
10.8
NAT vs ALP

Coogee
1.6
2.1
ALP vs LIB

Cootamundra
27.1
26.7
NAT vs ALP

Cronulla
19.6
19.6
LIB vs ALP

Davidson
25.5
24.7
LIB vs ALP

Drummoyne
15.0
13.7
LIB vs ALP

Dubbo
2.0
2.0
NAT vs IND

East Hills
0.5
0.1
LIB vs ALP

Epping
12.4
10.9
LIB vs ALP

Fairfield
17.9
16.6
ALP vs LIB

Gosford
7.3
7.1
ALP vs LIB

Goulburn
3.5
3.1
LIB vs ALP

Granville
7.6
8.8
ALP vs LIB

Hawkesbury
17.5
17.0
LIB vs ALP

Heathcote
5.0
2.1
ALP vs LIB

Heffron
15.1
15.0
ALP vs LIB

Holsworthy
3.3
6.2
LIB vs ALP

Hornsby
16.3
16.8
LIB vs ALP

Keira
19.7
18.3
ALP vs LIB

Kellyville (Castle Hill)
24.7
23.0
LIB vs ALP

Kiama
12.0
12.0
LIB vs ALP

Kogarah
1.8
0.3
ALP vs LIB

Lake Macquarie
22.1
23.4
IND vs ALP

Lane Cove
14.3
14.7
LIB vs ALP

Leppington (New seat)
0.0
1.5
ALP vs LIB

Lismore
1.3
1.8
ALP vs NAT

Liverpool
16.7
17.6
ALP vs NAT

Londonderry
6.5
3.0
ALP vs LIB

Macquarie Fields
14.8
14.8
ALP vs LIB

Maitland
13.2
14.7
ALP vs LIB

Manly
12.9
13.1
LIB vs GRN

Maroubra
8.5
8.4
ALP vs LIB

Miranda
14.6
14.2
LIB vs ALP

Monaro
11.6
11.6
NAT vs ALP

Mount Druitt
16.4
18.4
ALP vs LIB

Murray
3.5
3.5
SFF vs NAT

Myall Lakes
9.2
9.2
NAT vs ALP

Newcastle
17.7
17.6
ALP vs LIB

Newtown
13.8
11.5
GRN vs ALP

North Shore
11.1
11.1
LIB vs IND

Northern Tablelands
32.8
33.3
NAT vs ALP

Oatley
10.5
7.4
LIB vs ALP

Orange
15.2
15.2
SFF vs NAT

Oxley
14.9
15.4
NAT vs ALP

Parramatta
10.6
6.3
LIB vs ALP

Penrith
1.3
0.6
LIB vs ALP

Pittwater
22.4
22.4
LIB vs ALP

Port Macquarie
20.3
20.1
NAT vs ALP

Port Stephens
5.8
5.8
ALP vs LIB

Prospect
10.7
8.8
ALP vs LIB

Riverstone
6.3
6.2
LIB vs ALP

Rockdale
9.5
10.0
ALP vs LIB

Ryde
9.0
9.0
LIB vs ALP

Shellharbour
18.3
18.6
ALP vs LIB

South Coast
10.6
10.6
LIB vs ALP

Strathfield
5.0
5.2
ALP vs LIB

Summer Hill
16.5
17.1
ALP vs GRN

Swansea
10.6
10.6
ALP vs LIB

Sydney
11.8
13.7
IND vs LIB

Tamworth
29.5
27.9
NAT vs ALP

Terrigal
12.3
12.3
LIB vs ALP

The Entrance
5.2
5.2
ALP vs LIB

Tweed
5.0
5.0
NAT vs ALP

Upper Hunter
2.6
0.6
ALP vs NAT

Vaucluse
19.3
19.7
LIB vs GRN

Wagga Wagga
15.5
15.5
IND vs NAT

Wahroonga (Ku-ring-gai)
20.5
19.1
LIB vs ALP

Wakehurst
21.0
21.8
LIB vs ALP

Wallsend
25.4
25.9
ALP vs LIB

Willoughby
21.0
20.7
LIB vs ALP

Winston Hills (Seven Hills)
6.4
5.4
LIB vs ALP

Wollondilly
13.8
14.2
LIB vs ALP

Wollongong
21.4
22.4
ALP vs LIB

Wyong
12.4
13.0
ALP vs LIB