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Victorian state redistribution – final estimates

November 2, 2021 - 11:00 -- Admin

The final boundaries for the Victorian state redistribution were released last Thursday. It’s taken me a few days but I’ve now finished making my new map and updating my redistribution estimates.

I won’t do much to analyse the changes in this post. You can see my summary analysis of the draft boundaries and my estimates of margins for the draft boundaries. I will update my estimates of the two-candidate-preferred margins, primary votes for the main parties and upper house votes for the main parties in this post, along with a map showing the 2018 and 2022 boundaries.

There have been a few changes worth noting. I reckon about half of the seats have had some change since the draft boundaries, although I haven’t done a proper count. The proportion of electors who have moved seats has dropped from 17.4% to 16.8%.

The Commission reversed the renaming of Mill Park to Morang (so it remains Mill Park). They also changed the names for the Ballarat area. No longer will Wendouree be renamed Eureka. It will keep the name Wendouree, but it’s neighbour Buninyong is now named Eureka.

I’d also like to note Prahran and Albert Park. The Commission had recommended quite a substantial change to these seats, rotating them to swap quite a lot of territory. Instead the final boundaries make only minimal changes. This is good news for the Greens, since Labor had been substantially strengthened in Prahran on the draft boundaries. The Greens are still in third, as they were in 2018, but Labor has not shot out into the primary vote lead.

This parallels the federal process, where substantial rearranging of the Higgins/Macnamara boundary was reversed in the final decision.

Finally here is the map. New boundaries are in blue, old are in red. You can toggle on and off each set of boundaries and the seat names separately. I’ve posted the margin estimates after the fold.

Two-candidate-preferred margins

Seat
Old margin
New margin

Albert Park
ALP 13.1%
ALP 12.9%

Ashwood (Burwood)
ALP 3.3%
ALP 2.3%

Bass
ALP 2.4%
LIB 2.3%

Bayswater
ALP 0.4%
LIB 1%

Bellarine
ALP 11.5%
ALP 11.4%

Benambra
LIB 2.4%
LIB 9.4%

Bendigo East
ALP 12.1%
ALP 12.1%

Bendigo West
ALP 18.6%
ALP 18.6%

Bentleigh
ALP 11.9%
ALP 11.3%

Berwick (Gembrook)
LIB 0.8%
LIB 2.1%

Box Hill
ALP 2.1%
ALP 2.9%

Brighton
LIB 1.1%
LIB 0.5%

Broadmeadows
ALP 30.3%
ALP 24.3%

Brunswick
GRN vs ALP 0.6%
GRN vs ALP 2%

Bulleen
LIB 5.8%
LIB 5.7%

Bundoora
ALP 17.4%
ALP 17.6%

Eureka (Buninyong)
ALP 12.2%
ALP 7.2%

Carrum
ALP 11.9%
ALP 12.2%

Caulfield
LIB 0.3%
LIB 0.1%

Clarinda
ALP 17.4%
ALP 14.9%

Cranbourne
ALP 11%
ALP 9.1%

Croydon
LIB 2.1%
LIB 0.9%

Dandenong
ALP 23.9%
ALP 23.5%

Eildon
LIB 2.4%
LIB 0.6%

Eltham
ALP 9.1%
ALP 8.3%

Essendon
ALP 15.9%
ALP 15.8%

Wendouree
ALP 10.3%
ALP 13%

Euroa
NAT 15.4%
NAT 16%

Evelyn
LIB 2.6%
LIB 1.6%

Ferntree Gully
LIB 1.6%
Abolished seat

Footscray
ALP 28.1%
ALP 29.1%

Frankston
ALP 9.7%
ALP 10.1%

Geelong
ALP vs IND 6.2%
ALP vs IND 6.1%

Gippsland East
NAT 17.6%
NAT 17.6%

Gippsland South
NAT 15.3%
NAT 13.7%

Glen Waverley (Forest Hill)
LIB 1.2%
LIB 1.5%

Greenvale
New seat
ALP 22.6%

Hastings
LIB 1.1%
ALP 0.4%

Hawthorn
ALP 0.4%
ALP 0.4%

Ivanhoe
ALP 12.4%
ALP 12.7%

Kalkallo (Yuroke)
ALP 20.3%
ALP 20%

Kew
LIB 4.8%
LIB 4.9%

Keysborough
ALP 14.9%
Abolished seat

Kororoit
ALP 25.6%
ALP 24.9%

Lara
ALP 19.1%
ALP 19.1%

Laverton
New seat
ALP 23.4%

Lowan
NAT 23.5%
NAT 20.9%

Macedon
ALP 13.2%
ALP 13.2%

Malvern
LIB 6.1%
LIB 6.6%

Melbourne
GRN vs ALP 1.3%
GRN vs ALP 1.7%

Melton
ALP 4.3%
ALP 5%

Mildura
IND vs NAT 0.3%
IND vs NAT 0.3%

Monbulk
ALP 8.6%
ALP 9%

Mill Park
ALP 24.9%
ALP 25%

Mordialloc
ALP 12.9%
ALP 13.5%

Mornington
LIB 5%
LIB 5%

Morwell
IND vs ALP 1.8%
IND vs ALP 1%

Mount Waverley
ALP 1.8%
Abolished seat

Mulgrave
ALP 12.7%
ALP 16.2%

Murray Plains
NAT 23.9%
NAT 24%

Narracan
LIB 7.3%
LIB 6.7%

Narre Warren North
ALP 9.8%
ALP 10.2%

Narre Warren South
ALP 6.9%
ALP 10.7%

Nepean
ALP 0.9%
ALP 0.6%

Niddrie
ALP 12.6%
ALP 12.7%

Northcote
ALP vs GRN 1.7%
ALP vs GRN 1.7%

Oakleigh
ALP 15.8%
ALP 16.1%

Ovens Valley
NAT 12.6%
NAT 12%

Pakenham
New seat
ALP 2%

Pascoe Vale
ALP 8.3%
ALP 15.6%

Point Cook (Altona)
ALP 14.6%
ALP 12.3%

Polwarth
LIB 5.4%
LIB 2.3%

Prahran
GRN vs LIB 7.5%
GRN 9.4%

Preston
ALP vs GRN 20.7%
ALP vs GRN 21.2%

Richmond
ALP vs GRN 5.5%
ALP vs GRN 5.8%

Ringwood
ALP 2.8%
ALP 3.7%

Ripon
LIB 0%
ALP 3%

Rowville
LIB 5.7%
LIB 4.9%

Sandringham
LIB 0.6%
LIB 0.4%

Shepparton
IND vs LIB 5.3%
IND vs LIB 5.3%

South Barwon
ALP 4.6%
ALP 3.7%

South-West Coast
LIB 2.3%
LIB 3.3%

St Albans
ALP 21.5%
ALP 22.4%

Sunbury
ALP 14.3%
ALP 14.6%

Sydenham
ALP 17.9%
ALP 17.9%

Tarneit
ALP 18%
ALP 17.9%

Thomastown
ALP 27.2%
ALP 27.4%

Warrandyte
LIB 3.9%
LIB 3.9%

Werribee
ALP 12.6%
ALP 13.6%

Williamstown
ALP 22.1%
ALP 18.7%

Yan Yean
ALP 17%
ALP 16.9%

Primary votes for main parties

Seat
ALP prim
LIB prim
NAT prim
GRN prim

Albert Park
43.4
31.6

16.3

Ashwood (Burwood)
40.8
44.3

11.7

Bass
36.7
43.5

6.1

Bayswater
40.7
47.6

8.9

Bellarine
49.7
35.6

9.1

Benambra
17.7
40.1

3.5

Bendigo East
50.3
20.9
15.9
8.0

Bendigo West
53.5
27.1

13.1

Bentleigh
49.4
33.6

8.2

Berwick (Gembrook)
41.2
48.5

7.1

Box Hill
40.4
44.3

13.6

Brighton
32.4
44.8

14.9

Broadmeadows
56.4
15.1

7.9

Brunswick
38.6
7.8

42.7

Bulleen
36.4
52.0

11.1

Bundoora
55.3
29.9

8.0

Carrum
53.0
32.5

5.5

Caulfield
34.0
46.1

14.8

Clarinda
54.8
27.5

7.1

Cranbourne
48.7
34.3

4.0

Croydon
39.4
46.6

8.9

Dandenong
64.5
22.5

7.0

Eildon
36.6
46.9

10.9

Eltham
49.8
37.0

10.5

Essendon
46.2
27.5

16.8

Eureka (Buninyong)
45.0
31.3

9.3

Euroa
28.0

59.5
5.2

Evelyn
40.7
48.1

10.0

Footscray
54.4
17.3

20.1

Frankston
46.3
32.6

7.6

Geelong
41.8
21.9

9.0

Gippsland East
21.7

56.7
6.2

Gippsland South
28.1
1.0
57.9
9.3

Glen Waverley (Forest Hill)
41.5
48.8

8.4

Greenvale
60.0
24.2

7.0

Hastings
38.5
44.8

10.3

Hawthorn
32.9
43.9

17.7

Ivanhoe
46.5
32.0

15.0

Kalkallo (Yuroke)
59.4
25.3

5.9

Kew
31.4
49.4

15.2

Kororoit
63.5
20.8

8.2

Lara
57.9
24.1

7.5

Laverton
57.5
20.8

12.1

Lowan
21.9
6.0
57.9
5.3

Macedon
48.1
31.8

9.9

Malvern
29.4
51.6

12.9

Melbourne
35.2
17.4

38.8

Melton
34.7
16.8

4.6

Mildura
17.4
2.9
37.5
3.8

Mill Park
62.8
21.3

5.3

Monbulk
42.3
36.9

16.6

Mordialloc
50.9
31.0

7.5

Mornington
34.3
50.6

9.8

Morwell
38.5
14.1
9.0
3.7

Mulgrave
59.2
28.4

6.5

Murray Plains
19.4

60.3
4.2

Narracan
31.9
55.6

6.0

Narre Warren North
50.9
35.7

6.2

Narre Warren South
52.1
33.2

5.8

Nepean
37.9
44.2

11.0

Niddrie
55.1
34.0

6.9

Northcote
41.7
10.7

39.5

Oakleigh
53.3
29.7

11.3

Ovens Valley
20.8
1.9
42.1
4.8

Pakenham
44.1
43.5

7.9

Pascoe Vale
38.2
11.5

20.7

Point Cook (Altona)
49.7
24.2

7.9

Polwarth
31.4
46.2

10.4

Prahran
30.7
32.5

28.3

Preston
52.4
16.6

14.6

Richmond
44.2

33.6

Ringwood
42.5
43.6

13.4

Ripon
41.2
36.6

4.6

Rowville
35.8
50.9

9.4

Sandringham
33.3
42.5

8.1

Shepparton
11.6
26.6
13.0
2.4

South Barwon
38.9
38.6

8.4

South-West Coast
24.5
34.4

6.2

St Albans
60.7
24.0

11.2

Sunbury
58.6
33.6

7.7

Sydenham
61.0
28.5

6.4

Tarneit
56.7
25.9

7.7

Thomastown
61.8
15.2

4.1

Warrandyte
35.8
50.0

10.5

Wendouree
50.4
34.0

9.0

Werribee
45.9
16.7

6.5

Williamstown
50.1
20.3

13.2

Yan Yean
55.8
26.2
1.3
5.5

Legislative Council vote by region

ALP
LNP
GRN
Others

Region
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New

Eastern Victoria
33.6
33.5
34.1
33.9
6.7
6.9
25.6
25.7

North-Eastern Metropolitan
37.0
38.7
36.1
33.6
9.0
8.5
17.9
19.2

Northern Metropolitan
42.6
41.6
16.5
16.4
16.7
18.3
24.2
23.7

Northern Victoria
31.8
31.3
31.2
31.6
6.6
6.6
30.4
30.5

South-Eastern Metropolitan
49.9
49.0
29.0
29.6
5.6
5.5
15.5
15.9

Southern Metropolitan
34.6
35.1
38.3
38.0
13.5
13.1
13.6
13.8

Western Metropolitan
46.2
46.8
21.3
20.8
8.7
8.1
23.8
24.3

Western Victoria
38.2
38.3
29.9
29.8
7.5
7.5
24.4
24.4