The maps and data for the final WA federal redistribution were released on Tuesday this last week but unfortunately I was busy at the time packing up to move house the next day. I have now had a chance to update the analysis I published when the drafts were released.
The announcement in early September revealed that six of the sixteen new electorates were modified from the draft to the final version, and those changes all appear to be quite minor.
To one decimal place, there was no change in Cowan, Forrest or Hasluck. The Liberal margin in Canning increased by 0.1%, while Labor’s margin in Fremantle increased by 0.2% and their margin in Tangney was cut by 0.2%.
This is not particularly exciting but I’m including it in full as I’ll need these estimates for my federal election guide which I plan to finish after the Queensland state election.
After the fold I’ve published a map, a table of my margin estimates, and a table of my 2PP and primary vote estimates. Enjoy!
This map shows the 2022 boundaries, the draft 2025 boundaries and the final 2025 boundaries. You can toggle each layer on and off. You can also toggle on each layer’s seat names as a separate layer.
Estimates of two-candidate-preferred margins
Seat
Old margin
New margin
Brand
ALP 16.7%
ALP 17.1%
Bullwinkel (new)
ALP 3.3%
Burt
ALP 15.2%
ALP 13.3%
Canning
LIB 3.6%
LIB 1.2%
Cowan
ALP 10.8%
ALP 9.9%
Curtin
IND vs LIB 1.3%
IND vs LIB 1.3%
Durack
LIB 4.3%
LIB 4.7%
Forrest
LIB 4.3%
LIB 4.2%
Fremantle
ALP 16.9%
ALP 16.9%
Hasluck
ALP 6%
ALP 10.1%
Moore
LIB 0.7%
LIB 0.9%
O’Connor
LIB 7%
LIB 6.7%
Pearce
ALP 9%
ALP 8.8%
Perth
ALP 14.8%
ALP 14.4%
Swan
ALP 8.8%
ALP 9.4%
Tangney
ALP 2.4%
ALP 2.8%
Estimates of vote share for final electoral boundaries
Seat
ALP 2PP
LIB 2PP
ALP prim
LNP prim
GRN prim
IND prim
Brand
67.1
32.9
50.7
21.8
11.3
0.0
Bullwinkel
53.3
46.7
36.4
35.74
11.3
1.8
Burt
63.3
36.7
49.8
24.78
9.5
0.2
Canning
48.8
51.2
35.0
41.56
8.3
1.6
Cowan
59.9
40.1
45.8
30.97
10.0
0.0
Curtin
44.4
55.6
13.8
41.36
10.4
29.7
Durack
45.3
54.7
28.8
44.84
9.5
0.0
Forrest
45.8
54.2
27.6
43.07
13.5
0.0
Fremantle
66.9
33.1
44.1
24.15
18.0
0.0
Hasluck
60.1
39.9
43.7
30.13
11.4
2.1
Moore
49.1
50.9
31.9
41.81
14.1
1.3
O’Connor
43.3
56.7
26.7
44.5
10.9
0.0
Pearce
58.8
41.2
42.4
30.12
11.2
0.0
Perth
64.4
35.6
39.1
27.21
22.0
0.0
Swan
59.4
40.6
40.0
31.64
15.1
0.0
Tangney
52.8
47.2
38.1
39.58
12.4
0.0