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Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 11:17 Source

I awoke on Saturday morning to hear the first reports from Paris. The attacks were ongoing, explosions and shots were heard across the city. At…

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DNA

xkcd.com Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 11:00 Source

Researchers just found the gene responsible for mistakenly thinking we've found the gene for specific things. It's the region between the start and the end of every chromosome, plus a few segments in our mitochondria.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 10:53 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Westpac-Melbourne Institute today released its Leading Index for October, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future. The Index increased from minus 0.30% in September to minus 0.08% in October, with growth in the index running below trend for the last six months.

The post Westpac leading index stuck below trend appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 10:20 Source

From BofAML‘s monthly survey of instos: The Big November FMS takeaway is that the most vulnerable tactical trade heading into Dec Fed hike is “long dollar”, and associated positioning, i.e. long discretionary, Eurozone, banks, Japan, and short EM, resources, commodities. Exhibit 2 shows that “long USD” is the most crowded trade by far (32%), followed

The post A timely warning on the US dollar appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 10:19 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) has released an interesting research note examining the current housing boom and how it differs from the pre-GFC event: After peaking in March 2006, the median U.S. house price fell about 30%, finally hitting bottom in November 2011… Similarly optimistic homebuilders responded to the

The post What’s different about this US housing boom? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 10:12 Source

Jony Ive's design bestie, Marc Newson, has made a toaster for Sunbeam.

As it happens, I have a toaster shaped hole in my kitchen at the moment.

Toast is the internationally recognised survival food of the writer on deadline.

I am on deadline.

This was meant to be.

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Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 10:08 Source

Four people may have died in bushfires in Western Australia last night. It’s possible firebugs ignited the fatal blaze.

This means that four times as many Australians have been killed in the last week by firebugs as by ‘terrorists’ in Australia in a hundred years. Two Australians were killed by terrorists in the Battle of Broken Hill on January 1, 1915, and one more in Parramatta in 2015, a hundred years later.

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The Tally Room Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 10:00 Source

Yet another NSW government deadline looms today for local councils under the threat of amalgamation, and this time it looks likely to result in a number of significant amalgamations in Sydney and other large urban areas.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 09:57 Source

 by Chris Becker The relief rally in stocks in Asia continued overnight as European bourses soared to new highs on the back of higher economic sentiment but then hit the Stop sign when risk travelled across the Atlantic. Surprising 3Q results from bellweather stocks could not lift the S&P500 higher, dragged down by energy stocks

The post Macro Morning (CPI pause) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 09:56 Source

Adelaide! No wait, that was yesterday. Melbourne! Melbourne’s highest-priced homes are rising fastest in the current housing-market boom, with that segment of the market buoyed by low interest rates and business confidence. Dwellings in the top 25 per cent price bracket have jumped 10.8 per cent over the past six months, more than the rate of gain

The post And today’s Domainfax property spruik is… appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Melbourne Urbanist Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 09:51 Source

Many Australians form their views about how public transport should work from their experiences of cities in other countries. But we can’t expect to replicate something like the Paris Metro Can we build a metro like the one Paris’s got?

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 09:35 Source

From UBS comes estimates of pain: Diversifieds: All else equal, our BHP & RIO earnings estimates for CY 16 would be 60% and 29% lower, respectively, under a spot scenario. RIO would also trade on cheaper spot multiples at 19x CY 16E PE vs BHP at 46x CY 16E. At spot, S32’s CY 16 earnings

The post Iron ore earnings carnage appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 09:31 Source

By Leith van Onselen Liberal Democratic Senator, David Leyonhjelm, has truly ‘jumped the shark’, appealing to the National Rifle Association (NRA) in America not to follow Australia’s lead and implement greater gun control. In the interview (above), Leyonhjelm says the following about Australia’s gun laws: “I dont think Australia is a model for the United

The post David Leyonhjelm has love-in with NRA nut jobs appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 09:27 Source

Courtesy of UBS, the NEGI deal appears to have alleviated a lot of pressure on Incitec Pivot: Gas deal reduces Phosphate Hill cash cost to c.A$410/t. Incitec has announced that today’s gas deal will reduce total gas cost by c.A$55m; implying a material reduction in gas cost of A$5.00-5.50GJ. We see this reducing Phosphate Hill

The post NEGI deal slashes Incitec gas costs appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 09:19 Source

From Macquarie Bank’s monthly Chinese steel mill survey: Sentiment remained extremely weak in the steel industry in the first half of November, according to the latest result of our proprietary survey. There was a sharp slump in demand from infrastructure projects, which could be somewhat seasonal, while no other sectors had much improvement and exports

The post Chinese steel mill sentiment craters appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Digitopoly Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 08:14 Source

uber-vs-taxi-title-cardIt is almost strange to be asking the question. Ask any cab driver and they will equate Uber to any disruptive child you care to present.

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Global Guerrillas Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 08:01 Source

Scott Atran:  I was just with the Saudi royal family and they were telling me that 700 Saudis have just joined ISIS in Libya.

Is ISIS the real source of Islamic terrorism?

No.  ISIS is just a symptom.  

The real source of Islamic terrorism is found in the the Gulf Kingdoms.  

To stay in power, the ruling families in these Kingdoms have turned their countries into feudal theme parks replete with aristocratic governance, social backwardness, and draconian punishments.  

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 05:53 Source

You have to be careful about who listen to when it comes to the economy. Commentators are hopeless. The economists that they rely on are worse. Markets can be better but are also quite fallible. Right now all three are deluded about Australia’s prospects. From Miranda Maxwell: There is general agreement that Australia’s economy is

The post Karl Marx could see Australia is going to bust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 05:52 Source

By Leith van Onselen Throughout the year, we have heard several reports on how cheap imported combustible cladding covering potentially thousands of buildings across Australia represents a clear and present fire risk for owners of recently built apartments (see here for rundown). Last night, ABC’s 7.30 Report ran a segment warning about the safety of

The post Combustible homes meet collapsing steel appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Global Guerrillas Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 04:42 Source

Here's how ISIS is using open source warfare (wikipedia) to become more effective in conducting their global Jihad:

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 04:15 Source

By Leith van Onselen Victoria’s Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) has released October’s data on the number of housing transfers and mortgage lodgements/discharges, which suggests that Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) housing market is well and truly in the blow-off phase of the bubble. According to the DTPLI data, the volume of housing transfers

The post Melbourne housing has decoupled from mortgages appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 04:14 Source

By Leith van Onselen Earlier this month, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) revealed that 125 foreign real estate buyers had taken advantage of the Government’s amnesty to fess up to buying homes illegally, with another 523 buyers under investigation by the ATO for possible breaches. Now, the Herald-Sun has revealed that a Chinese tycoon has

The post ATO foreign buyer crackdown claims another scalp appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 04:01 Source

From the AFR comes Urban Development Institute of Australia’s chief executive Stephen Albin at UBS’ Australasia Conference: “Demand is still there, especially in NSW. The only issue is the supply of money. Some developers won’t be taking a rest over Christmas. In fact they’ll be trying to run down stock as much as possible so they don’t

The post Time for a little developer discounting appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 02:20 Source

It appears we are losing the “war on terror”: Full report.

The post Global terrorism index soars appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 02:19 Source

US inflation was out last night and showed a little uptick after months in the basement, from the Cleveland Fed (charts from Calculated Risk): According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) in October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized

The post US inflation may buoy Fed appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 01:06 Source

From Fairfax today on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT): After all available deductions are taken, it is supposed to extract up to 40 per cent of profits from a project in recognition that companies have been granted the right to extract a finite national resource. But figures from the Department of Industry, the ATO

The post Mining super profits tax shocker piped into LNG appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 01:06 Source

From Fairfax today on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT): After all available deductions are taken, it is supposed to extract up to 40 per cent of profits from a project in recognition that companies have been granted the right to extract a finite national resource. But figures from the Department of Industry, the ATO

The post Marn creams, LNG reams, taxpayer screams appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 01:05 Source

Here are the iron ore charts for November 17, 2015: The Tianjin benchmark iron ore price fell 3.2% yesterday to $45.80. Dalian was pulverised late yesterday and overnight as well and sits at 338 this morning, setting up more losses today. Clearly we are going to retest the lows and, very likely, break them. My old

The post Daily iron ore price update (hammered) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 01:05 Source

The Brent oil price was smashed again last night to $43.78 as I write. There was little news. It’s just that there’s still too much oil and we’re running out of places to put it, from Citi: Oil in “quasi-storage”, which is oil on the water that is yet to be delivered but has not

The post Daily LNG price update (full) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 18, 2015 - 01:02 Source

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks. A top level real estate rescue policy is now a “high probability.” Real estate is a major factor in the cement and steel slowdowns, and a key component in fixed asset investment. The policy garnering the most speculation is financial support for the removal/renovation of shantytowns, which would require

The post More on China’s realty panic button appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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