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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 09:49 Source
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The Tally Room Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Earlier this month I published a blog post which discovered that the average 2CP margin of victory has not actually been getting smaller at recent federal elections. I didn’t end up including the chart in the post, but I also identified that the numbers of marginal seats hasn’t been going up over time, despite a number of formerly-safe seats now becoming marginal non-classic seats.

But I wanted to explore the make-up of those marginal seats over time, and the safe seats not included on the list: seats for each party, and the number of classic and non-classic seats.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 09:10 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 09:03 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Everything is awesome as a potential ceasefire in the Middle East is underway, following an Iranian attack on a US military base in Qatar was thwarted. This has sent risk significantly higher, dumping USD and oil prices in the process, negating all the fallout from the entry of the Trump regime into the war. Euro

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 08:23 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 08:09 Source

[John Hepworth] turned death into an art form …Theatrical by inclination, he was determined to die in his own bed with his hat on… Hepworth was splendid while dying. Dressed in a magnificent nightshirt, and wearing a Victorian smoking cap, he entertained the friends who had come to say goodbye.

The Age, November 1994

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 08:00 Source

As the conflict in the Middle East continues, there is a strange divergence in perceptions about what may come next. On one hand, there are headlines that the Iranian Parliament has reached a “unanimous consensus” that Iran should move to close the Strait of Hormuz, whereas on the other, markets have reacted with a rather

The post We need to talk about the Strait of Hormuz appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Canada experienced an unprecedented immigration boom after the pandemic, which caused a record housing shortage. As a result, Canada’s rental vacancy rate fell to a record low and rental inflation soared, delivering the worst rental crisis in living memory. The following chart from the National Bank of Canada estimates that the nation’s shortage of rental

The post Canada shows Australia how to solve housing crisis appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 16:30 Source

As the bombs, missiles and threats are thrown around the Middle East like kids in a playground, risk markets are relatively stable following the entry of the US into the Israel-Iran war. The USD is gaining more strength against most  of the undollars with the Australian dollar losing ground to head back to the 64

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 15:28 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 15:03 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 15:00 Source
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Prosper Australia Monday, June 23, 2025 - 14:51 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 14:32 Source
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Your Democracy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 14:16 Source

Vice President J.D. Vance has pushed back against comparisons between US airstrikes on Iran and previous American wars in the Middle East, claiming that this time Washington’s actions are truly limited and rooted in national security objectives – not a drive for regime change.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 13:40 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Pru Goward tries to make sense of the world. The collection cost associated with taxation is but one example of the impost of government regulation on productivity. The enormous number of public servants devoted to extracting every possible cent from economic growth is bloated by private armies of accountants and tax lawyers employed to ensure compliance

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Renew Economy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 13:01 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Victoria’s net debt was only $22.3 billion when the Labor government delivered its inaugural state budget in 2015. According to budget projections, it will reach $194 billion by 2028–29, up from $155.5 billion currently. Victorian net debt per capita was less than $3,600 in Labor’s first budget. Since then, it has surged to $21,900, with

The post Victorian debt explodes on bureaucratic waste appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Many argue that iron ore is cheap. But above $90, it is still very expensive. That is the tell on why you should not buy miners now, even though they appear cheap on NTM and dividends. The reason is, the market is yet to discount the entrance of Simandou, which is actually going better than

The post Don’t buy miners now appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Australian has a consistent viewpoint on the use of gas that is clearly destructive to the Australian economy (and, therefore, itself). It is pro-gas, but it very rarely argues in favour of policies like domestic reservation, even when they are promoted by the Coalition. To some extent, this is probably ideological. The Murdoch Press

The post Why does Murdoch want to destroy Aussie energy? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 11:54 Source
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Your Democracy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 11:34 Source

The expansion of the war from Palestine to Iran, which began on 13 June, signals an Israeli obsession persisting for four decades. As the Trump administration was negotiating in bad faith with Iran over its nuclear programme, the Israeli regime took advantage of an interval to bomb Tehran, assassinating leading scientists, a senior general and other officials, some of them engaged in the talks.

 

Nuclear OptionsTARIQ ALI

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The Market Ear with the charts. Already bombed out This email is just a reminder that sentiment and positioning metrics were already pretty depressed going into this weekend. From hedge funds to quants, longs are light which should leave less room for an unwind panic. Here are a couple of our favorite charts. Just average

The post Buy the bombed appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Australia’s recent productivity growth has been among the worst in the advanced world, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro. This month, federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers launched a productivity summit aimed at pulling the nation out of its funk that has seen per capita growth and living standards decline. The Guardian’s economics editor,

The post Australia’s productivity dreamland appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Throughout last year, CBA published data showing that older Australians had increased their spending significantly above inflation, whereas younger Australians had cut back hard on spending. For example, in the year to Q3 2024, Australians aged 70-plus increased their spending on essential categories by 7.4% and spending on discretionary categories by 8.0%. Both were well

The post Only older Australians can afford luxuries appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 10:00 Source

DXY fell Friday, but WWIII should be enough to restore it this morning. AUD is bunkering. We’ll see a nice oil pop this morning. I say short it. MAGA ain’t pleased. Metals grind on. The mining bear market is huge and only just begun. EM meh. A safe haven bod for Treasuries. Stocks only go

The post Australian dollar hits the oil skids appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 23, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Goldman has presented four possible scenarios for the oil market arising from the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facility: Scenario One, we stay in the present scenario where we do not have a meaningful or any loss of supply… I think in that situation we stay around these sort of levels because we are seeing some curtailment of

The post How high for oil as world goes nuclear? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, June 23, 2025 - 09:17 Source

The mainstream French media ignored the reality of Nazism's existence in Ukraine for years and refused to acknowledge the widespread presence of Nazi ideology within the Ukrainian armed forces, even when Ukrainians wore swastikas or other Nazi symbols during military training in France. And then, suddenly, one of the major French media outlets noted "hundreds of similar cases." Why?

 

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