Blogotariat

DXY is back! AUD is not. Lead boots plod on. Gold bashed. Metals too. Big bear intact. EM shaky. Junk fine. The curve steepened. Stocks sold. At issue is the US CPI tomorrow. Goldman. Our analysis implies that tariff effects have boosted the core PCE price level by0.20% so far. We expect another 0.16% impact

The post Australian dollar burned by inflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Thursday upped the reward it’s offering for information that leads to the arrest of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro to $50 million. 

Research by the McKell Institute warns that thousands of manufacturing jobs in Australia are at risk, particularly in regional areas The report claims that China’s “aggressive” industrial subsidisation, now likely exceeding its defence spending, risks shuttering some 73,000 jobs in Australian regions reliant on refining and smelting metals. “In the short-term, China’s geoeconomic strategy is

Asian share markets are having a much better start to the trading week although Japanese markets are closed for yet another holiday as Bitcoin and other crypto currencies are seeing big bids. Yen was relatively steady against USD as expected while Euro is climbing again as the Australian dollar holds firm above the 65 cent

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Windlab project in north Queensland spent four years in the EPBC queue, but is back in the queue over its grid infrastructure needs.

NSW is to fast track tenders, and offer more capacity, as it ramps up its wind, solar and storage targets to keep prices down as coal exits the grid.

In most places, debate ultimately yields change. Not in Australia. Here we have fake debate and feasting vested interests. The on-again, off-again debate about negative gearing has been settled for now with Housing Minister Claire O’Neil ruling out any change, a day after Anthony Albanese poured cold water on implementing new tax changes before the

The post Labor will NEVER cut negative gearing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Market Ear on equity internals. A zero-sum doughnut “Getting a doughnut” in bonus is what all junior investment bankers fear. Somewhat common in 2002 and 2003 and very common in 2008. Probably very rare in today’s evergreen bull. Separate from bonuses, it was striking to us this Saturday morning when we looked at our

The post When will the AI bubble burst? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

When a government puts public money into century-old smelters, it is not nostalgia. It is a bet that processing capacity in friendly jurisdictions matters as much as mines.

Government-funded jobs have artificially fueled Australia’s jobs boom over the past two years. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, around 80% of jobs created over the past two years have been in the non-market sector, which is reliant on government funding. The non-market sector generated around 658,000 jobs between Q1 2023 and

The post Australia’s job boom is over appeared first on MacroBusiness.

When I first mapped out the latest (and last) return to the Axis of Time universe, I thought I could wrap it up neatly in three books. One tight trilogy, finishing in November this year. Job done.

Hmmm. Yeah, nah. That’s… not going to happen.

As the writing has accelerated over the last couple of weeks, I’ve realised the story is still stretching its arms, refusing to be neatly tucked in. The characters keep getting up off the page, demanding their say. And the narrative possibilities keep offering more corners to explore and conflicts to resolve than my initial story map encompasses.

Earlier this year, economist Chris Murphy noted that the historical effective average income tax rate in the first two decades of this century was 23%. Even with stage three income tax cuts worth around $23 billion per year, Murphy warned that bracket creep would lift the average tax rate by two percentage points to 25%

The post Australian workers face decades of pain appeared first on MacroBusiness.

With a few elections finishing up, I have now made a number of additions to the Tally Room’s data repository.