One key measure political parties use to gauge the public’s appetite for change is voter sentiment about whether the nation is headed in the right direction. New RedBridge and Accent Research polling spells bad news for the Albanese Labor government, with 55% of voters in 20 key marginal seats believing the nation is “generally headed in
Roy Morgan’s alternative and unadjusted unemployment number hit an eighteen-month high in January. In January 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 78,000 to 1,620,000 (up 0.4% to 10.1% of the workforce) with more people looking for both part-time and full-time work. The Australian workforce increased by 297,000 to a record high of 16,115,000 in January with
Markets never do geopolitics well. That is, they ignore it until shocked. Not this time. The Market Ear has more. Stock market trading peace The Ukraine ceasefire basket is going vertical. Equity traders are optimistic that there will be peace. Source: GS No quick ending Polymarket odds that Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90
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Statistics New Zealand has released net migration data for December, which showed that annual net permanent and long-term (PLT) migration inflows fell to 27,000, the lowest level since December 2022 and well below 135,600 in October 2023. Annual arrivals continued to slow and annual departures hit record highs. The annual net PLT inflow of non-NZ
The presentation criticizes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for insisting on Ukraine's direct involvement in peace negotiations with Russia and the U.S. regarding the war. It argues that Zelensky lacks the leverage to demand a seat at the table and portrays him as an irrational actor with a history of poor military and diplomatic decisions.
Zelensky's HARD (dicky) STAND...
Policymakers want to force Australians to live in high-rise apartment towers, assuming it will improve affordability. Their assumption is incorrect, as data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that building a shoebox apartment is more expensive than building a detached house. Michael Matusik’s chart highlights the problem. “Whilst all building costs have risen
The Aussie terms of trade shellacking is taking a breather, but the trend is intact and will get much worse. The last Commodity Price Index from the RBA was enjoying a dead cat bounce. But the two coals have continued their collapse. Metallic coal is grinding lower. My target price in 25/26 is $100. It
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DXY took a breather. AUD is poised for more. Plenty of room in the Chinese jaws. Oil and gold firm. Copper bubblet bursts. Yawn. Miners stuffed. EM deepsucking. Junk breaking out? Yields down. Stocks up. I can’t remember an RBA pile-on of such intensity. Both hawks and bulls are so politicised that the central bank
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It’s always the same at this stage of the cycle, only this time it is secular, not cyclical. BHP’s dividend payout has hit its lowest point since 2017 after the mining giant missed market expectations on underlying earnings as well as profit. BHP reported first-half revenue of $US25.2bn, down 8 per cent on the prior
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Amid a lot of macro chaos, stock markets continue to make new highs with the German DAX pushing European bourses higher while a closed Wall Street almost made a record close on Friday night despite a poor retail sales print and crashing export volumes to Canada. The USD continues to give up ground against most
The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.
In Australia at the federal level of government, we have some of the shortest election cycles in the world: often barely three years. This mitigates against even medium-term planning. A new government takes a year to learn the ropes of office, another year to govern before preparing for re-election in the third. And even if a government survives that long, the odds are its leader won’t.
