I don't know what I was thinking. I should know better. But I made the mistake of checking the news this morning. It's been a couple of months since I've done that. I guess I was thinking that at some point I’d have to go back to writing columns about stuff happening in the world rather than stuff happening inside my head. But honestly, the stuff inside my head is nicer to think about than the stuff happening out in the world.
Always sobering and usually right…eventually. I agree with much of the below but don’t think we are there yet. Albert Edwards of Societe General bears it up! Existing trends were pushed to new extremes in 2024. The idea of US equity market exceptionalism has taken such deep root that it’s impacting so much else,
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It’s shock and awe time for Uncle Sam’s allies in the clown car who have mindlessly gone along for the ride.
Not only is freshly re-minted US President Donald Trump reversing course at breakneck speed but, if his newly declared priorities are any indication, he seems to be headed, pedal to the metal, all the way back to the 80s.
Goldman with the note. President Trump’s Inauguration Day policy announcements on tariffs were more benign than expected. While we did not expect major policy pronouncements so soon following inauguration, Trump’s comments on China were notably less hawkish than during the presidential campaign or even his more recent comments since the election. And while we viewed
The Market Ear with more. The power of the hammer candle Last Monday we pointed out the powerful hammer candle in SPX. We wrote: “Watch these type of candles post sell offs, as they can be the first signal of markets about to bounce. We saw a similar candle set up in early November.” Fast forward
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Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate dips back to 0.25% but still slightly positive. Growth set to improve in 2025 but remain lacklustre. Modest lifts in commodities, consumer, equities and dwelling approvals. While the growth signal is still not particularly strong, it has shown a clear improvement on the persistently negative, below-trend reads
CBA with the bad news. Despite our expectation for a lift in household expenditure to a more trend-like pace as the cash rate is normalised, there will be a natural handbrake on the pace of consumption growth. First, the positive impact on household income from the Stage 3 tax cuts will fade as no personal
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The Chinese steel rally is petering out, stalling iron ore. BHP is spewing iron ore. WAIO 128 Mt 1% | 145 Mt (100% basis) Production increased as a result of continued strong supply chain performance with record volumes delivered from the Central Pilbara hub (South Flank and Mining Area C) following the completion of the
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