So says the CBA’s excellent Gareth Aird. We forecast GDP growth to have been 1.1%/yr at Q4 24 and to accelerate through 2025 to be 2.2%/yr in Q4 25. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher in H1 25 and we anticipate it will end the year at 4.3% (the peak in this cycle).
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It was only a few weeks ago that LVO wrote an excellent piece decomposing Australia’s detonating cafepocalypse. A critical component of the meltdown is the exploding price of coffee beans. There is no immediate end in sight to the shortage. There is a heavy backwardation in futures but no return to reasonable prices for years.
The post $10 coffee to scorch cafepocalypse appeared first on MacroBusiness.
The patchwork of regulators for gas—ACCC, AEMO, AER, state and federal departments—has no single oversight of the destruction wrought by the East Coast gas cartel. For instance, I have been calling for years for increased southern gas storage to hedge peak winter consumption. Domestically reserved and regulated priced QLD gas should be shipped south in
The ferrous complex is following its typical seasonal pattern leading into Lunar New Year. But do not be fooled. This is not a good omen for the year ahead. Westpac has warned that iron ore prices could collapse 30 per cent this year to about $US70 a tonne when Rio Tinto floods the market with
The post The iron ore tariff appeared first on MacroBusiness.
The Market Ear on the latest equity signals. The break out? Is WSJ’s “won’t impose new tariffs yet” article enough for futures to break out to the upside when markets are closed? SPX futures breaking above the short term trend line as of writing. A close here or higher and things risk becoming even more
The post Stocks turn dip into rip appeared first on MacroBusiness.
This morning, Crikey sneers at Trump 2.0. “The golden age of America begins right now,” Trump declared in his 29-minute address. “From this moment on, America’s decline is over.” The president’s speech was littered with phrases such as “a revolution of common sense” and “drill, baby, drill” as he announced he would declare an emergency
DXY was smashed Trump Day 1. AUID rose from the dead. Even the lead boots rose. Gold and oil hosed off. Copper too. Miners are laggards. Make EM great again? Junk firming. Yields not so impressed. Stocks to the moon. Trump 2.0 is here and it started slowly on tariffs, lifting markets. President Donald Trump held off
The post Australian dollar rises from the dead appeared first on MacroBusiness.
The Circus is now officially in town and with that came a slam back of the USD as tariff talk was walked back a bit, not helped by a holiday on Wall Street, with the less talked about crypto pumping and dumping the better! European shares surged despite the lift in Euro which jumped straight
The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.
I realised with a start recently that I’ve managed to read and listen to quite a few books in the last couple of months.
Since November last year, I’ve read…
ELON MUSK HAS BEEN PAINTED AS AN EXTREME-RIGHT WING SUPPORTER, BY THE MAIN STREAM MEDIA AND THE "CENTRE-RIGHT-WING" GOVERNMENTS OF THE "FREE WORLD"...
THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT IS UP IN ARMS ABOUT MUSK'S SUPPORT FOR THE AfD...
Donald J. Trump has taken his oath of office as the 47th president of the United States, administered by Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court John Roberts.
Trump was sworn in inside the US Capitol Rotunda, to the sounds of the presidential fanfare ‘Hail to the Chief’.
Moments earlier, Vice-President J.D. Vance took the oath of office as well, administered by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.