The two-party-preferred vote is the simplest statistic we have in Australian elections – just two numbers that always add up to 100%. While it has reduced relevance for calculating the result in some seats, it still has predictive power and also plays a role as a sort of barometer of the relative popularity of the two major parties. Despite the increase in the vote for minor parties and independents, the choice of who forms government is still binary.
Via the ABS. CPI analytical series Seasonally adjusted 2.4 2.4 2.1 CPI excluding volatile items* and holiday travel 2.6 2.8 2.7 Annual trimmed mean 2.7 2.8 2.4 Two basis points under market expectations. The chart: Trimmed mean inflation is also running well behind the RBA’s forecasts, as illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors:
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Geoff Wilson, founder of Wilson Asset Management, stepped up his attack on the Albanese government’s proposed tax on unrealised superannuation capital gains, which he labelled “unfair” and “un-Australian”. The proposed policy would increase the earnings tax on superannuation balances of $3 million or more from the current 15% to 30% without indexation. It would also
The ferrous market does not look well to me. Scuttlebutt is pretty good. The benchmark July iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was 0.15% higher at $93.65 a ton. Hot metal production, a gauge of iron ore demand, inched up 0.24% week-on-week to 2.422 million tons, as of June 20, according to data from Chinese
The gas cartel shills are in gear for the Santos takeover, according to the AFR. “The opportunity is there to leverage a far better outcome for the domestic energy market through a highly conditional approval – not just an undertaking to do things some time in the future. No, from day one, you rectify the
In the 2022 state budget, the former Queensland Labor government blindsided the coal industry by unexpectedly introducing two new tiers of coal royalties. This included a top tier of 40% for coal prices above $ 300 per tonne, effectively a mild super-profits tax. The unexpected announcement was a stroke of political genius, as it caught the
DXY appears ready to crack. I would say this will be its last leg down before Fed cuts arrive and do the opposite later this year. AUD is being powered by the big short. Apparent in CFTC. Lead boots are not much help, though. I’m a seller into the next god leg higher. Oil bottomed
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Does this look to you like a dog who didn’t steal an extra-large cartoon of eggs? Does she have the air of aggrieved innocence one might expect from a dog wrongly accused of stealing and scoffing fifteen eggs while the other dog was out on his walk? Does that tummy look somewhat distended to you?
Risk markets continue to discount all negative news, like the non-existent ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and latched on to Federal Reserve Chair Powells dovish testimony in front of Congress overnight. Wall Street rallied over 1% higher while the USD was sold off again as Euro led the way while the Australian dollar found some
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