Macro Afternoon: 9 May 2025
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Friday Eve Easy Listening
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Aussie house prices projected to rocket higher
The bulls are rushing Australia’s property market. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is forecast to cut the official cash rate by 1.0% by the end of 2025, taking it to 3.10%. As illustrated below, the Albanese government recently instructed lenders to disregard student debts when assessing mortgage serviceability, which will lift borrowing capacity. The
How to restore the Greens
It’s not rocket surgery. Be green, not fake. Drop the woke malarky. Drop the support for endless population growth and be honest about its devastating effects on the natural world, as well as youth prospects for housing and social progression. Be honest about the limits to growth, not pompously hypocritical to those of differing views.
Robots are bulls, humans are bears
The Market EAr on the mechanical bull. Stuck, but… SPX is still stuck in some sort of range, but note the short term trend line comes in at the 5700 level (futures). Next resistance above that is the 5750 area and the 200 day slightly higher. A close above that resistance and many will be
Harry Triguboff gaslights on housing crisis
For decades, billionaire Meriton founder ‘Highrise’ Harry Triguboff has persuaded politicians to implement policies favourable to his financial interests, including mass immigration. In 2006, Triguboff claimed that Sydney’s population needed to reach 20 million by 2050. In 2010, Triguboff argued that Australia’s population needed to increase to 100 million. “I’d like to see 100 million,
Iron ore slashed by steel cuts
Ferrous complex struggles continue. The steel output cuts have begun. The China Iron and Steel Association said this week the government was “actively deploying and promoting” its crude steel production mandate. Looming output restrictions have weighed on the market and are expected to impact demand of iron ore. “The main task facing the steel industry is
Apartments are too expensive and take too long to build
I have frequently cautioned that state and federal government plans to blanket our cities with high-rise apartments will not help Australian housing affordability and will reduce livability. The reasons are simple: it is too expensive to construct apartments. As a result, they cannot be delivered at a reasonable cost to buyers. Urbis highlighted the excessive
When will Australian real wages recover?
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) forecast that by Q2 2027, Australian real wages would be 5.9% below the Q2 2020 peak, tracking around the same level as December 2011. Extrapolating the RBA’s forecast suggests that Australian real wages may not recover to the Q2 2020 peak until around 2040.
Australian dollar flogged by return of the king
DXY is back. AUD is not. Lead boots are heavy. Commods says no bueno for growth. Big miner meh. EM meh. Junk a bit better. Yields won’t budge. Stocks only go up. DXY breaking out. EUR breaking down. Ordere restored. Nobody got dollars. And you’re going to need them if you’re chasing tech stocks again.
Aussie inflation continues to ease
The official Q1 CPI inflation print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that the policy-important trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.9% year-on-year to be within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target of 2% to 3%. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Melbourne Institute’s monthly trimmed mean inflation