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Articles from MacroBusiness

Macro Afternoon

February 3, 2026 - 17:00 -- Admin

Asian share markets are bouncing back strongly on the back of a solid US manufacturing PMI print overnight and a possible resolution to the latest Epstein distraction as Iran deliberates on shutting down its nuclear capabilities. The USD remains strong against the undollars amid its recent resurgence with Euro heading below the 1.18 handle while

RBA hikes, burning mortgage holders

February 3, 2026 - 14:44 -- Admin

As widely tipped by financial markets (~70% probability), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unanimously voted to lift the official cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%: The increase will add roughly $110 to the monthly cost of servicing the average-sized $700,000 new mortgage. In arriving at its decision, the RBA noted that inflation “picked

Why do stocks keep igoring all risks?

February 3, 2026 - 13:30 -- Admin

Chart from TME. Why have stocks ignored collapsing trade, the Chinese crash, anarcho-imperialism, civil, fiscal and monetary instability in the US? In a word: earnings. Kicking. Arse. Better still to come if AI delivers. Carving it up. Easy money. Roaring economy. Trending off planet. M&A bouncing. Not much to criticise there.

Kouk on durries revisited

February 3, 2026 - 13:00 -- Admin

It is hard to believe it was ten years ago that the Kouk (who?) fought a tremendous battle against conservative commentators over plain packaging for durries. He claimed a mighty victory. Tobacco consumption has plummeted a staggering 17.5 per cent since the plain packaging laws were introduced in late 2012. Stick that in your pipe

Bracket creep punishes workers, rewards waste

February 3, 2026 - 12:00 -- Admin

The Albanese government is on track to collect far more personal income tax than expected this financial year, as higher‑than‑forecast inflation pushes workers into higher tax brackets. Treasury forecasts inflation of 3.75% for 2025–26. However, CPI has already risen 2.7% in the first six months, meaning the full‑year figure is likely to be higher. The Reserve

Is that the end for gold?

February 3, 2026 - 11:30 -- Admin

Charts from TME. ‘Tis a mighty bust. But has not reached the 100day MA. RSI collapse. Not a CME story. A China story. More. Chinese traders, including homemakers and hedge funds, are experiencing big losses after a record rally in gold ended with a sharp market reversal. The reversal was triggered in part by the

Will Trump’s desire for higher housing prices to be his undoing?

February 3, 2026 - 10:30 -- Admin

Historically, a “lame duck” U.S. President is an incumbent who is in their final term, has seen dramatically reduced political influence and congressional support, or has lost their reelection campaign. Currently, on paper, Trump has significant power, with Republicans holding the White House, Congress, and the Senate. But by mid-November, with the midterm elections looming,

How Labor raised permanent migration by stealth

February 3, 2026 - 10:00 -- Admin

When the Albanese government came to office, it quickly raised Australia’s permanent migrant intake by 30,000 to 195,000 annually. It also raised the humanitarian intake by around 7,000 annually to 20,000. The permanent migration intake has since been reduced back to 185,000. So, along with the 20,000 annual humanitarian intake, the official permanent migrant program

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