Last week, I presented detailed data on how the sharp reduction in net overseas migration (NOM) in Canada, which turned negative last year, has suppressed rents. After experiencing explosive rental growth in 2022 and 2023 amid record NOM, Canada has experienced 17 consecutive monthly declines in rents: Canadian rents are now tracking at a 33-month
Chinese property is OK post-LNY but the year has started poorly. The secondary market is still awash. EV sales have dropped post-incentives. But watch this space. If there is one winner globally from the American Madman’s war, this is it. Broader car sales are similar. Consumer depression continues. Coal isn’t growing, but its sovereign value
Australia’s largest real estate group, Ray White, has issued a stern warning that proposed changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount would trigger a major shock to the rental market. Ray White managing director Dan White and chief economist Nerida Conisbee told 10,500 members that the federal government is considering reducing
When the war in the Middle East first broke out, I warned that Australia faced a triple energy threat of higher petrol/diesel prices, higher gas prices, and higher electricity prices. Vivek Dhar, Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics at CBA, published a detailed analysis warning of similar risks, arguing that Australia’s energy system is facing
The American Madman raised the prospect of talks to resolve a dispute that has disrupted oil markets and nearly stopped shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz. “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” Trump stated, adding that Tehran’s promise to give
As the world continues to assess the impact and implications of a protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in the Middle East, Australia is facing major challenges to its fuel security. According to the latest snapshot provided by Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen, Australia possesses stocks worth 36 days of
While everyone knows about the risks of oil and refined fuels, there is much more coming from the Persian Gulf than just those. Morgan Stanley helps us summarise where the shortages will be in due course. Sulphur Concentration: The Middle East accounts for 45% of the world market for sulphur (fertilizer/chemical chain), a crucial component
Proponents of high immigration claim that it is necessary to alleviate purported labour shortages and an ageing population. These arguments were always spurious: Australia has run one of the largest migration programs in the world this century, yet has suffered from persistent labour shortages. In effect, Australia has played a game of migration ‘whack-a-mole’ this
The central bank would be insane to hike this week, and I don’t believe that it will. The energy shock that is overrunning Australia is going to shut down the economy in record time. My sense is that a panic shutdown is already underway as Australians realise the Iran war will cut fuel supplies by
When all is said and done, the RBA can do 3 things this Tuesday It can lift rates It can leave rates alone It can drop them The last is the easiest to dismiss. In February, the RBA told us, rightly, that inflation was running hotter than they liked and that a rate hike