Yes, this is my last post at MacroBusiness…see more below but first the final roundup of today’s markets: Its been a tough day on local markets with the ASX200 slumping while the nexus of the AI bubble on Wall Street, the Trump regime’s warmongering in Iran, a snap election in Japan and the latest US
Charts from TME. Semiconductors are threatening to follow software down as the NDX washout gathers momentum. To call the semis trade crowded doesn’t quite say it. Software doom is at hand. Overnight, Goldman declared the sector the new “Newspapers”. “Historical episodes of major disruption risk suggest that share price stabilization will require stability in the
The Victorian government has introduced a suite of tax increases and new levies that significantly raise holding costs for investors—primarily through lower land‑tax thresholds, expanded vacant‑residential‑land taxes, and new short‑stay levies. These changes mean more investors now pay land tax, and those who already paid are paying more. Therefore, holding costs for investment properties have
As we enter the Chinese Year of the Horse, which signifies dynamism, energy, and freedom, ANZ believes that Chinese growth is entering a new era. While such an assumption is okay in theory, the notion that Chinese growth is about to rise is pretty laughable to me. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is notoriously difficult to
The State of Queensland is running large operating deficits, averaging 3.2% of operating revenue between FY25–FY27. The operating deficit is expected to peak at nearly 6% in FY26. Deficits after capital spending are extremely large: 17–20% of revenue through FY27. A return to operating surplus is not expected until FY28. S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Queensland’s AA+
Following the resumption of rate rises from the RBA earlier this week, many Australians have been left wondering how things went so badly wrong that the RBA has needed to raise rates only a year after it started cutting them, despite the prior rate rise cycle delivering the largest relative rise in mortgage rates in
Regional Australia should be alarmed by the latest long-term projections from the Centre for Population, which risk tilting the nation’s power balance further in the cities’ favour. To recap, the Centre for Population’s 2025 Population Statement projects that the nation’s population will grow by 3,860,000 over the 11 years to 2035–36, with most (80%) of
DXY is back and showing no signs of fatigue. The AUD looks like a man clinging to the edge of a cliff. It has overshot its CNY sponsor. The Japan problem is back. Gold puked again. Copper longs must be feeling it. AI metals are in free fall. Big mining parabola goes “pop”. EM down.
Melbourne’s status as an economic wasteland continues to grow. The latest labour force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), presented below by CBA, shows that Victoria has recorded the steepest rise in unemployment in the nation: Victoria’s trend unemployment rate is also the highest in the nation at 4.7%, sitting well above the
The ferrous jaws are finally closing. Another 3-4% and we will be at some kind of weak equilibrium in steel profits. That is, if steel prices don’t start falling again. And they well might. CISA output for the last ten days of January was poor. The year has started tracking 2019. There was a silver