Always sobering and usually right…eventually. I agree with much of the below but don’t think we are there yet. Albert Edwards of Societe General bears it up! Existing trends were pushed to new extremes in 2024. The idea of US equity market exceptionalism has taken such deep root that it’s impacting so much else,
Goldman with the note. President Trump’s Inauguration Day policy announcements on tariffs were more benign than expected. While we did not expect major policy pronouncements so soon following inauguration, Trump’s comments on China were notably less hawkish than during the presidential campaign or even his more recent comments since the election. And while we viewed
The Market Ear with more. The power of the hammer candle Last Monday we pointed out the powerful hammer candle in SPX. We wrote: “Watch these type of candles post sell offs, as they can be the first signal of markets about to bounce. We saw a similar candle set up in early November.” Fast forward
Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate dips back to 0.25% but still slightly positive. Growth set to improve in 2025 but remain lacklustre. Modest lifts in commodities, consumer, equities and dwelling approvals. While the growth signal is still not particularly strong, it has shown a clear improvement on the persistently negative, below-trend reads
CBA with the bad news. Despite our expectation for a lift in household expenditure to a more trend-like pace as the cash rate is normalised, there will be a natural handbrake on the pace of consumption growth. First, the positive impact on household income from the Stage 3 tax cuts will fade as no personal
The Chinese steel rally is petering out, stalling iron ore. BHP is spewing iron ore. WAIO 128 Mt 1% | 145 Mt (100% basis) Production increased as a result of continued strong supply chain performance with record volumes delivered from the Central Pilbara hub (South Flank and Mining Area C) following the completion of the
With an official unemployment rate of only 4.0%, you would be forgiven for thinking that Australia’s labour market is booming and incredibly tight. However, new data from Seek, NAB, and Jobs & Skills Australia contradict this view. Seek’s employment report for December revealed that the number of job ads fell by 3.0% over the month,
DXY held its losses. AUD most of the gains. Chart of the day goes to lead boots. Commods took softer than expected tariff signals as less than expected stimulus. Miners grinded higher. EM too. Junk better. Yields unconvinced. Stocks march on. El Trumpo half upset the applecart by declaring 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
Wall Street returned from its long weekend and rallied across the board, not helped by more tariff talk although most of that looks like the typical hot air so far, with the USD still remaining in a weak short term cycle against the major currency pairs. European shares were flat as the lift in Euro
The fearmongering over the exodus of property investors from Victoria has continued. Rental bond data from the Victorian Government shows that the state lost 24,726 rentals (3.6% of its stock) in the year ending 30 September 2024, the sharpest decline in rental bonds on record. Melbourne lost 23,108 rentals (4.2% of its stock) over the