In January, Domain published a series of charts showing that Australia’s housing affordability was the worst in recorded history. The national dwelling value-to-income ratio hit an equal record high of 8.0 in Q3 2024, up from a 20-year average of 6.7. The amount of time taken for the median-income household to save a deposit on
Wholesale electricity prices have been falling in recent days. However, they are still double year on year! Prices have been easing in the weak demand shoulder season as the gas cartel plays dead going into the election. However, ahead are still some very difficult problems with very severe outcomes. With futures up 25% year on
Australians have endured the largest cost-of-living shock in modern history. The following chart deflates the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official wage price index against the ABS’ cost of living index for employee households. On this measure, Australian real wages in Q4 2024 were tracking 10.1% below the peak at around Q1 2012 levels. The
Goldman is unusually bearish. 5 Key Themes to End the Week 1. The Risk of a Prolonged Bear Market: No Crisis, Just Pain The lack of a clear financial crisis means markets won’t experience a rapid, cathartic selloff that forces deleveraging and resets valuations. Instead, the risk is a slow, painful decline over multiple years,
Via Goldman, the headline numbers and deficit breakdown. The 2025 fiscal targets unveiled during the “Two Sessions” imply the total amount of government bond net issuance quota will increase to RMB11.9tn in 2025 from RMB9.0tn in 2024. According to the 2025 budget report proposal, the MOF expects fiscal revenue growth to slow, but fiscal expenditure
China is in the flush of one last steel export surge, up 6.7% year on year for Jan/Feb. Iron ore fell sharply on supply disruptions. The balance explains the small easing in port stocks of iron ore. It also helps explain tearaway CISA steel out mid-February. But, dead ahead are the tariffs and the export
Friday night saw the release of the latest US unemployment aka non-farm payroll figures and while they underperformed they came in as expected, giving a relief valve to Wall Street which managed a meagre rally to end the trading week still at a new low. European stocks pulled back but then managed more gains in
Australia’s labour market appears to be tremendously healthy. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) monthly labour market survey, the economy added 173,000 (3.5%) jobs in the year to January. Australia’s official unemployment rate (4.1%) is also among the lowest in the advanced world, alongside the United States. On Friday, the ABS released its
On Saturday morning, I awoke to news that a friend’s home one kilometre away was the victim of an attempted home invasion. The bandits climbed over a neighbour’s side fence and attempted to force their way into the rear door. Luckily the neighbour awoke, made a racket, and they ran away. The following day, the
Goldman on the EUR rocket. Based on our models, the Euro’s surge this week went far beyond its typical relationship with 1-year growth expectations (even if we allow for a more front-loaded shift than our economists expect) and, to a lesser degree, the currency also strengthened more than can be explained by higher Bund yields.