Articles from Poll Bludger
Not a moment too soon, you may now find (hopefully) an expanded Western Australian election guide herewith, featuring a comprehensive overview page and a region-by-region guide to the upper house, in addition to the long-established seat-by-seat guide to the lower house.
No change this week, at all, from the Essential Research fortnight rolling average – Coalition and Labor 37% apiece, Greens and One Nation 9%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, 53-47 to Labor on two-party preferred.
With only four more sleeps to go:
The latest Tasmanian state poll from EMRS adds a One Nation response option and records their support at 6%, driving a five-point drop in Liberal support to 35%. Nonetheless, Labor and the Greens have both gained a point to 29% and 19% respectively. Curiously, Will Hodgman has nonetheless increased his lead over Labor’s Bryan Green as preferred premier, from 50-22 to 52-20.
The latest Tasmanian state poll from EMRS records a slight moderation in the Hodgman government’s lead, with the Liberals down two points since November to 46% and Labor up two to 27%, with the Greens down two to 18%. However, Will Hodgman’s lead over Labor’s Bryan Green as preferred premier is down from 56-19 to 52-21.
A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on two-party preferred.
Tomorrow’s Sunday Times has a poll from Galaxy, related via Twitter, showing Labor with a 54-46 lead, which is all I can tell you about it at this stage (other than that it’s more in accordance with my own perceptions that ReachTEL’s statewide results). More to follow.
Today’s West Australian reports on a ReachTEL poll of 1706 respondents conducted for the Tourism Council across 15 marginal seats*, which – after exclusion of the 5% undecided – has Labor on 41.9% and the Liberals and Nationals between them on 36.4%, which compares with averaged results of 33.5% and 53.3% across the relevant seats in 2013. The Liberal and Nationals votes break down to 32.4% (48.1% in 2013) and 5.9% (5.2% in 2013, although it only fielded candidates in four of them).