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Matters Tasmanian

May 5, 2017 - 20:40 -- Admin

A helpful conjunction of events allows me to condense three pieces of Tasmanian electoral news into one post, namely the publication of draft boundaries of the state’s five federal and state electorates; tomorrow’s elections for three of the state’s 15 Legislative Council seats; and the quarterly poll of state voting intention from EMRS. In turn:

Draft electoral redistribution

Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland

April 29, 2017 - 15:27 -- Admin

The first Queensland state poll in two-and-a-half months finds One Nation going off the boil after its spectacular showing in the previous poll, with most of the dividend going to Labor. Conducted by Galaxy for the Courier-Mail, the poll finds Labor up five points to 36% and the Liberal National Party up one to 34%, with One Nation down six to 17% and the Greens down one to 7%.

BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

April 29, 2017 - 06:04 -- Admin

This week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research have resulted in very slight movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, although Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection as gains in Western Australia and South Australia balance out a loss in Queensland.

Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

April 27, 2017 - 06:00 -- Admin

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last.

BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

April 22, 2017 - 16:11 -- Admin

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia.

I see England, I see France

April 21, 2017 - 05:04 -- Admin

UPDATE: Exit polls from France will be published 4am EST (i.e. early Monday morning), and the actual result should be clear about three hours after that, unless it’s particularly close.

There’s a lot of big election news going down right now at the other side of the globe, starting with the first round of France’s presidential elections on Sunday, to be followed a fortnight later by a run-off between the two leading candidates.

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