The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention has Labor on 28%, up five on a disastrous result from February, with the Liberals down a point to 54%. The poll also shows the Greens down four to 14%, which is well below anything I recall seeing for the Greens from this series in the past.
Newspoll and Nielsen have both published results this evening, so together with yesterday’s Galaxy the broad outline is as follows (UPDATE: Essential Research and Morgan are now included as well):
The first poll in the post-budget avalanche is a Galaxy survey of 1006 respondents showing the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. While it shows a highly negative reaction to the budget in terms of effect on personal finances (14% expect to be better off against 48% worse off), support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed).
Fowler covers an area of Labor’s western Sydney heartland from Lansvale, Liverpool and Cabramatta in the east, through Hinchinbrook and Cecil Hills to undeveloped territory beyond the Westlink.
It’s been a quiet week for polling, with the major pollsters holding their fire ahead of the budget and leaving the field vacant for the regularly weekly Essential Research and Morgan. With each adhering closely to the trend, there are only minor shifts in this week’s aggregated poll result on voting intention (as displayed on the sidebar).
Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45.
The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally marginal territory in Wantirna’s eastern neigbours Bayswater and Ferntree Gully.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated on the sidebar, adding four polls (Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL) which told an all but identical story on two-party preferred after house bias adjustment. BludgerTrack has Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all slightly down on the primary vote, translating into a slight increase in the Coalition’s already commanding lead on two-party preferred with no change on the seat projection.
GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition two-party vote up a point, putting their lead at 56-44. Primary votes are 31% for Labor (down one), 47% for Coalition (up one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). With both up two points, Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 42-37. On personal ratings, Gillard is down a point on approval to 29% and up one on disapproval to 61%, with Tony Abbott steady on 36% and down two to 51%.
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll’s bi-monthly New South Wales state poll for March-April shows no significant change on January-February, with the Coalition holding a crushing 61-39 lead on two-party preferred (up from 60-40) from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (up two), 28% for Labor (up one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Barry O’Farrell’s approval rating is up one to 44% and disapproval steady on 38%, while John Robertson is steady on 28% and down one to 34%.