BludgerTrack moves half a point and three seats in favour of Labor this week, which mostly reflects the fact that it’s been a while now since the Coalition had one of the relatively good data points that are discernible in late May and early June on the two-party trend chart below. This week’s movement may have been ameliorated if the ReachTEL result had been included, but it hasn’t been because I haven’t yet seen the primary vote numbers inclusive of the forced response for the undecided.
Articles from Poll Bludger
A new ReachTEL poll for Sky News records one of the better results for the Coalition of recent times, at least on the headline two-party figure of 51-49 to Labor, which compares with 52-48 in the last such poll three weeks ago.
Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.
Among the other findings:
There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model.
The situation as I understand it. Scott Ludlam has vacated his Senate seat after it came to his attention that having lived here nearly all of his life and being naturalised as an Australian did not vacate his New Zealand citizenship. This caused him to fall foul of Section 44(i) of the Constitution, which disqualifies those who are “a subject or a citizen of a foreign power”.
The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%.
Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average records Labor improving a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, puttings its lead north of Newspoll at 54-46. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, leaving it steady with an unchanged Labor, while the Greens and One Nation are steady at 11% and 7%.
The Australian relates yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 35% and Labor to 36%, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens, despite it all, up a point to 10%. Of personal ratings, only the following at this stage:
This week’s reading of BludgerTrack, supplemented only by the usual weekly result from Essential Research, is another big load of nothing, the only movement being a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Western Australia, balanced by a loss in Victoria. One Nation has bumped downwards for the second week in a row, but this is very likely a statistical artefact.