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Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

April 27, 2017 - 06:00 -- Admin

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last.

BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

April 22, 2017 - 16:11 -- Admin

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia.

I see England, I see France

April 21, 2017 - 05:04 -- Admin

UPDATE: Exit polls from France will be published 4am EST (i.e. early Monday morning), and the actual result should be clear about three hours after that, unless it’s particularly close.

There’s a lot of big election news going down right now at the other side of the globe, starting with the first round of France’s presidential elections on Sunday, to be followed a fortnight later by a run-off between the two leading candidates.

Western Australian election count endgame

March 22, 2017 - 14:08 -- Admin

Wednesday 2pm

We have the first finalised upper house result in, so I’m bumping this post. The Greens are relating that Robin Chapple has been re-elected in Mining and Pastoral, in what can only have been a close race against Labor’s third candidate, which presumably means a result of two for Labor and one apiece for the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and Greens. More on that shortly. The other five regions, last I heard, are set to be determined tomorrow.

Monday morning

Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

March 19, 2017 - 22:12 -- Admin

Newspoll records a much improved result for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead cut from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 37%, Labor is down two to 35%, One Nation are steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down one to 29% and up one to 57%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has improved from 40-33 to 43-29.

ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia

March 17, 2017 - 23:36 -- Admin

The weekend edition of The West Australian has results of a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia, presumably conducted on Thursday night. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, which if borne out would amount to a 7.6% swing compared with last year’s election. I’m not sure about a federal poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of a state election, but there it is. More detail to follow.