New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.
Articles from Poll Bludger
The latest fortnightly YouGov poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition steady on 34%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation down one to 9%, with the combined result for all others steady on an ample 13%. The respondent-allocated two-party result shifts a point in Labor’s favour to reach 50-50, with the Greens both increasing their primary vote and recorded a somewhat stronger flow of preferences to Labor.
The Australian reports a quarterly Newspoll result of state voting intention in Queensland, the first published since the second quarter of 2016, and the first to feature One Nation as a response option. One Nation emerges with 15%, which comes at the expense of the Liberal National Party, down six to 34%, and “others”, down eight to 6%, partly because it no longer includes One Nation.
Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47 after a 54-46 blowout a fortnight ago, with primary votes at 37% for the Coalition (up two), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 8% for One Nation (down one). Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are on 34% approval and 54% disapproval, which means one-point drops in both for Turnbull, and no change for Shorten. Oddly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has blow out to 46-29, from 43-33.
The only poll this week was a slightly-less-bad-for-the-government result from Essential Research, which takes some of the edge off last week’s surge to Labor. The Coalition’s two gains on the seat projection consist of one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. No new results on leadership ratings this week.
No change on two-party preferred from Essential Research this week, with Labor still leading 53-47, with the Coalition steady at 37% on the primary vote, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 10% and One Nation steady on 8%.
A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor.
Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one).
I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%.