Sky News reports its latest monthly ReachTEL poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51-49 a month ago. The primary votes provided do not exclude the undecided, the number of which isn’t specified, but the numbers we have to work with for now are Coalition 32% (down one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down one).
Articles from Poll Bludger
I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%.
Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today.
Newspoll breaks out of its 53-47 straitjacket to record a 54-46 lead for Labor, from primary vote of Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (up two), Greens 9% (down two) and One Nation 9% (up one). Leadership ratings also record substantial change for the first time a while, with Malcolm Turnbull down three on approval to 35% and up five on disapproval to 55%, and Bill Shorten down two to 34% and up three to 54%.
Here’s BludgerTrack, updated with all of one data point from Essential Research. Labor is down a bit on two-party preferred but unchanged on the seat projection, with a loss in New South Wales balanced by a gain in Victoria. And that’s yer lot.
The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote.
The latest quarterly EMRS survey of state voting intention in Tasmania records a continuing decline in support for Will Hodgman’s Liberal government, which is down two to 37%, with Labor steady on 34%, the Greens up one to 16%, and the Jacqui Lambie Network recording 5% on their first inclusion as a response option.
I had a paywalled article on the same-sex marriage issue in Crikey yesterday, which focused on the ways in which the proposed postal survey might skew the result to “no”. To that end, I obtained figures from Essential Research breaking down recent polling on the subject by age and gender, results of which are displayed below. This is based on 3061 responses obtained in June and July.
New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states.