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xkcd.com Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 10:00 Source

This is almost as bad as the time I signed up for a purely partisan fishing expedition.

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The Tally Room Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Hare-Clark is basically unique amongst Australian electoral systems because there is a realistic possibility that a member of parliament will lose their seat to a fellow member of the same party – indeed it happens fairly regularly. Another unusual feature is the use of countbacks. Members of parliament often choose to quit mid-term, and are replaced by a fellow member of their party without the need for a by-election. But those mid-term replacements often struggle to retain their seats against other candidates at the following election.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is back and EUR is trash. AUD has a nasty double top. Lead boots are OK. Gold and oil are in trouble. Ditto metals. Big mining rotation, my butt. EM pumped and dumped. Junk is warning. As yields spike. Nasdaq also pumped and dumped. US inflation was pretty good at 0.3% MoM and +2.7%

The post Australian dollar smashed by US tarifflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 09:00 Source

All eyes were on the release of the latest US CPI print which accelerated over the year showing that the Trump regime’s tariff crusade is beginning to have an effect on domestic inflation. This is just the start as the full effect has not been seen yet, with the core goods CPI print had its

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 08:31 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Roy Morgan has published its annual survey measuring the levels of trust and distrust that Australians have in the economy. Roy Morgan claims that Australia is becoming a “fragile nation”, with distrust in the entire economy rising, consumer confidence remaining in the doldrums for three years, and the nation’s social fabric under continuous stress. The

The post Australians no longer believe in the ‘Lucky Country’ appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 07:23 Source
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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 07:19 Source

Donald Trump is on the brink of tearing up his 'no foreign wars, pro-peace' pre-election pledge on Ukraine, with plans to deliver more weapons, and threats against Russia edging him closer toward inheriting "Biden's war." Sputnik asked a renowned US geopolitics and military affairs expert to break it down.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 07:19 Source
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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 06:50 Source

France’s Strategic National Review predicts a large-scale military conflict with Russia in Europe by 2030, despite Russia repeatedly rubbishing the scenario.

 

Why It's a Non-Starter

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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 06:19 Source

The Gaza genocide is special. And not in one but two regards.

As has often been observed, this is the first genocide in history that is, in essence, livestreamed. No genocide before has been committed under the eyes of the world like this one. And second, the Gaza genocide is undermining and, in effect, devastating whole moral and legal orders – or at least longstanding claims to them – in an equally unprecedented way.

 

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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 05:55 Source

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 00:16 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 16, 2025 - 00:05 Source

A meeting of the national cabinet in August 2023 agreed on a target of 1.2 million new homes to be built between 1 July 2024 and 1 July 2029. This 1.2 million target requires 240,000 homes to be constructed every year, which is a level that is around 7% higher than the record single-year construction

The post Nobody believes the government on housing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 22:34 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 22:34 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 19:07 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 16:00 Source

The uneasy start to the trading week continues as markets weigh up the recent EU and Mexican tariff letters from the Trump regime while also awaiting tonight’s US CPI print that is sure to define risk for the rest of the month. The USD was up slightly after the weekend gap but is stalling out

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 15:42 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 15:04 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 15:01 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 14:53 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 14:38 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 14:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 14:00 Source

In Q1 2025, New Zealand’s economy unexpectedly grew by 0.8%, surpassing the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 0.4%. However, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, New Zealand’s GDP still declined by 0.7% year on year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded by keeping the official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 3.25%

The post Reserve Bank braces for another recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 13:49 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The Market Ear on more possible buyers. What’s not to like…? Equities may be at all-time highs, but positioning and sentiment still don’t scream euphoria. With neutral fund flows, massive sidelined cash, and no real signs of exuberance, the setup supports a potential melt-up — especially if CTAs, volatility traders, and retail all step in.

The post The bubble can inflate appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 13:00 Source

During the GFC, the U.S. state of Texas emerged relatively unscathed. To get a handle on the relative performance of the Texas housing market during this era, we’ll also be looking at the Texas economy, labor market, and foreclosure rates, as well as some commentary from academia. A Bit Of Background – The Lone Star

The post How to bullet-proof house prices in a commodity bust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 12:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Does anybody recall “Pig Iron Bob”. Sir Robert Menzies’s pejorative moniker that he took to the grave? The name sprang from the Dalfram Dispute: In 1938, Australian waterside workers refused to load pig iron onto the ship Dalfram, destined for Japan, which was then at war with China. This was due to the workers’ concerns that

The post Pig iron Bob returns from the grave appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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