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Oz Blog News Commentary
Your Democracy Saturday, April 12, 2025 - 04:44 Source

China likened the United States’ tariff policy to a ‘numbers game’ with no practical meaning after the administration of US President Donald Trump imposed multiple rounds of duties on Chinese imports over the past few weeks.

In a statement on Friday, the Chinese government accused Washington of using tariffs as a weapon for bullying and coercion, while hitting back with its own reciprocal trade duties.

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Renew Economy Saturday, April 12, 2025 - 03:23 Source
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MacroBusiness Saturday, April 12, 2025 - 00:15 Source

Should you invest now or wait for stock markets to settle? This is the number one question on every investor’s lips. The answer: It depends what kind of investor you are. Risk profiles and calculations can give you an indication of risk tolerance. But it is not until you get a decent market downturn that

The post Don’t be this investor appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, April 12, 2025 - 00:05 Source

International Reading: Trump Finally Confirms True Scope of China Tariffs—Setting Up Disaster – New Republic Is Trump Pulling Off the Biggest Financial Fraud in History? A Dire Warning – Integ Carney’s Checkmate: How Canada’s Quiet Bond Play Forced Trump to Drop Tariffs – Dean Blundell Trump burned the stock market with tariffs — then took

The post Weekend reading and media appearances appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 16:00 Source

You can’t stop the bond music as we see seismic shifts in global trade and risk markets with the pressure on US Treasuries building further even as the Trump regime tries to backtrack its kindergarten level economic stupidity, while the Chinese, EU and Canada deftly move the chess pieces around the table. The USD is

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 14:29 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 14:23 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 14:22 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 14:21 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 14:21 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 14:00 Source

This week saw the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 3.50%, as widely expected. The reduction means the OCR has now fallen by 2.0% from its peak of 5.50%. Curiously, the Reserve Bank’s commentary attached to its decision was not as dovish as expected. “Most members” saw

The post Reserve Bank to cut ‘harder and deeper’ appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Victoria has the nation’s highest per capita debt and the lowest credit rating. The recent budget update reported that Victoria’s net debt has risen from $36 billion to $155 billion during the last decade. The state’s net debt is expected to rise to $187 billion in the three years to 2026–27. The expansion of Victoria’s

The post Victoria’s budget drowns in bureaucratic waste appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 13:00 Source

On Wednesday, the Australian Greens announced that the abolition of negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount will be a priority in a minority government. The Greens’ policy is as follows. Grandfather negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount to one investment property. Any properties purchased after the policy commences, or the second

The post The Greens’ housing policy is unworkable appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 12:46 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 12:30 Source

It is hard to believe that the Dutton-led Coalition now faces the prospect of losing seats at the upcoming federal election. The combination of Donald Trump’s trade war and policy own-goals like promising to ban working from home (since revoked) has sent Coalition support plummeting. The latest YouGov poll shows that Labor now leads the

The post Coalition voter support collapses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Sydney’s housing market is losing momentum. CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index shows that Sydney recorded only a 0.1% rise in the past 28 days, the softest result across the five main capital city markets. Sydney’s 0.1% rise in values compares to 0.6% growth in Melbourne, 0.3% in Brisbane, 0.7% in Adelaide, 0.3% in Perth, and

The post Sydney turns house price loser appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 11:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 11:30 Source

SGX and rebar futures have firmed a little. The Chinese ferrous PPI is weak, down 0.5% in April and 10% year on year. This will intensify as tariffs land. Goldman has downgraded China. On April 9th, President Trump announced a further increase in the tariff rate on imports from China to 125%, following the Chinese

The post How screwed is iron ore? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 11:10 Source

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Aleksandr Syrsky, has said Kiev must mobilize 30,000 soldiers every month to sustain resistance against the Russian army. He also highlighted the growing disparity between the military capabilities of the two countries.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 11:00 Source

It’s time to acknowledge that the dream of ‘net zero’ emissions is dead. The world’s top three carbon emitters are China (31.5% of total), the United States (13.0% of total), and India (8.1% of total). In 2023, these three countries accounted for more over half (52.6%) of global carbon emissions. As shown above, China and

The post The dream of net zero is over appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 10:30 Source

This is not what a central bank governor should say as the world falls apart. Inevitably, there will be a period of uncertainty and adjustment as countries respond to the ongoing tariff announcements by the United States administration. It will take some time to see how all of this plays out and the added unpredictability

The post Bullock is a ditherer appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 10:06 Source
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The Tally Room Friday, April 11, 2025 - 10:00 Source

10:00 – Hello and welcome. I’m going to be using this live blog to cover the declaration of nominations today.

At midday local time in each part of Australia, ballot draws will be conducted for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Nominations closed yesterday, but we don’t yet know who made the final cut. At the declaration, those names will be announced, each candidate will have a ball assigned to them in a lottery device, and then those balls will be drawn out.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro published intriguing charts showing the sharp decline in consumer inflation expectations. The following chart shows that the long-running monthly Melbourne Institute measure of consumer inflation expectations has fallen to the long-run (1995–2019) average on a quarterly basis. The same holds for consumer inflation expectations two years from now. Justin Fabo

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xkcd.com Friday, April 11, 2025 - 10:00 Source

I have to pay with paper money.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 10:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Market Ear on historical movements in safe havens. Safe? US 30 year closing at another new recent high…and the dollar moving in the totally opposite direction. Big stuff going on under the surface. How safe is safe? Refinitiv VXTLT “Unstoppable”…and possibly even more important watching the VXTLT than the VIX at the moment. Refinitiv

The post Safe havens torn apart appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 11, 2025 - 09:00 Source

The short covering rally on Wall Street quickly reversed as the insider traders made their profits while the rest of the risk complex gravely worked out that the end is still coming, 90 day stay of execution or not. The USD was shot down with its weakest one day performance in three years with a

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 08:16 Source

US Democratic Senator Adam Schiff has called on Congress to investigate President Donald Trump for possible insider trading and market manipulation following his abrupt trade policy U-turn. Global stocks soared after the president paused the imposition of tariffs on a multitude of countries this week.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 11, 2025 - 07:44 Source
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