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Renew Economy Monday, August 25, 2025 - 13:34 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 13:30 Source

It is big. Very big. The Market Ear. But it can get bigger! Or not… A period of sorting and cleansing is underway  For a time, the dominant narrative suggested that AGI was only two or three years away — that “magic AI” would emerge and rapidly take off into superintelligence. As discussed on the

The post Measuring the AI bubble appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Iron ore soared overnight thanks to Jay Powell. Unsustainable. Steel demand in China remains down year to date, but up for the week year on year. Steel production is far above last year. But this is misleading. My Steel is supposed to, but obviously doesn’t, cover EAF. Steel recycling has collapsed. In raw volume terms

The post Iron ore roars as green steel dies appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Goldman with the note. As we flagged in a note earlier this year, spending on the NDIS has risen from 0% of GDP a decade ago to almost 2% of GDP currently (~A$50bn), around double initial projections, with the overshoot largely driven by higher take-up rates among children with autism and psychosocial conditions. While the

The post The great disabling to slow appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 12:00 Source

There are two key migration data sets published by the ABS. These are regularly utilised by analysts, the media, and the government. There is the official quarterly net overseas migration (NOM) data, which is published on a six- to nine-month delay. The latest official data available is for Q4 2024, eight months ago, and the

The post ABS migration censorship controversy explodes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 11:30 Source

There was the Henry Tax Review, left gathering dust on the shelf. Now, there is the heavily prescribed Productivity Roundtable, which will do likewise. A cowardly Albo has ruled everything out. The Australian. Anthony Albanese has laid down his conditions for economic ­reform in an era of growing polarisation, declaring any policy changes need to

The post Aussie economy doomed under Cowardly Albo appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, August 25, 2025 - 11:27 Source

 

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Australia is slowly transforming into 1984’s Ministry of Truth. First, we saw the Albanese government backflip and announce that Australians under 16 would be banned from accessing YouTube. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also wants to make Australia’s draconian media ban global. Albanese announced that he will promote Australia’s world-first social media age ban and encourage

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Australian consumers have been trapped in a recession. The March quarter national accounts showed that real per capita household consumption has been negative for seven consecutive quarters on an annual basis, down 2.4% from its peak. As illustrated below by CBA, the Australian consumer is the largest component of the economy. And the sluggish pace

The post RBA rate cuts pull Aussie consumers out of recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, August 25, 2025 - 10:23 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Are we getting somewhere? The Australian. The top Abu Dhabi executive spearheading its $30bn Santos takeover has opened crunch talks with the Australian Workers Union which took aim at Santos’s venture in Gladstone for sucking up third party gas to meet its LNG export contracts. Mohamed Al Aryani, president of international gas at ADNOC’s XRG,

The post Unions must embrace Peter Dutton’s gas reservation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, August 25, 2025 - 10:00 Source

I tried uploading it to a household appliance porn site I found, but apparently their content is limited to only fans.

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John Quiggin Monday, August 25, 2025 - 09:49 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is down, down. AUD is up, but it’s still a grind. Lead boots to the moon! Commods too. Big bear intact. EM launch! Junk vertical! Yields pounded! Stocks roar! So many exclamation marks in one post means it can only be dovish Fed. Jay Powell at the bottom of the Jackson Hole. Putting the

The post Scorched by an Australian dollar rocket appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Risk markets loved Fed Chair Powell’s long awaited speech at the central back fest at Jackson Hole with a dovish tilt seemingly suggesting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, but only if inflation remains contained from the Trump regime’s tariffs. The hint gave Wall Street the signal to buy after five straight

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, August 25, 2025 - 08:45 Source

The FBI raided the D.C.-area home of former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton on Friday.

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Your Democracy Monday, August 25, 2025 - 08:43 Source

Executives at Walt Disney Studios are reportedly pressing Hollywood creatives for movie ideas that will bring young men back to the theaters. According to Variety, Disney is hoping to get Gen Z men, which it defines as ages 13 to 28, interested in original films.

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Your Democracy Monday, August 25, 2025 - 08:00 Source

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Your Democracy Monday, August 25, 2025 - 06:44 Source

When I was growing up in central Pennsylvania, my working-class family took vacations to places we could drive to—for example, Pine Creek Gorge upstate, better known to locals as the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon, or Delaware, where an aunt and uncle lived on the way to Rehoboth Beach. To this day, neither of my parents have been on an airplane, or west of the Mississippi River. The first time I flew anywhere was the summer after I graduated from college.

 

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 06:00 Source

Since U.S. President Donald Trump kicked off the current round of trade tensions with China back in April with the ‘Liberation Day’ announcement of widespread tariffs on Chinese-made goods, Beijing has responded by aggressively limiting the exports of vital rare earth minerals not only to the United States but also to the rest of the

The post China could halt high tech Western manufacturing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, August 25, 2025 - 05:55 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 25, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Independent economist Chris Richardson published the following chart on Twitter (X) showing that Australia has experienced one of the poorest increases in living standards over the past decade among advanced OECD nations. “The good news is that Australia’s average has improved since my last update”, Richardson wrote. “The bad news is we still have a

The post Australia’s economic ‘lost decade’ appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Sunday, August 24, 2025 - 17:39 Source

Australia's Biggest Whinger | Scam of the Week

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC4h1s5qwyA

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MacroBusiness Sunday, August 24, 2025 - 16:00 Source

By Lucinda Jerogin, Associate Economist at CBA It was a relatively quiet week locally. Consumer sentiment lifted to a 3½ year high, providing further evidence the household consumption recovery is gaining momentum. The Economic Reform Roundtable was held in Canberra from Tuesday to Thursday. Offshore, geopolitical events dominated headlines. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks tookcentre stage, but no

The post The economic week ahead appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Sunday, August 24, 2025 - 15:05 Source

I was forced to work with a workplace psychopath for a decade or so. Most of the time, it had little effect, because my day-to-day work was something he knew little about and I was largely left to my own devices. However, there were a few times when we interacted. We edited a book some years ago, and as I was an experienced editor, I did most of the work compiling the volume. He wrote the two page foreword.

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THE BLOT REPORT Sunday, August 24, 2025 - 14:54 Source
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THE BLOT REPORT Sunday, August 24, 2025 - 14:52 Source
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MacroBusiness Sunday, August 24, 2025 - 12:04 Source

The latest Westpac consumer sentiment survey showed that Australians have become bullish on house prices. House price expectations hit a cyclical high, whereas the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ sub-index also shot higher. The improving sentiment has also been reflected in the auction market, where the national clearance rate has climbed to its highest level

The post Auctions rocket pushes house prices higher appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Sunday, August 24, 2025 - 08:42 Source

Convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell, who is seeking a pardon from Donald Trump, told top Justice Department officials during an interview last month that she never witnessed the president “in any inappropriate setting” with girls introduced to him by disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

 

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Your Democracy Sunday, August 24, 2025 - 08:11 Source

The German economy is experiencing a “structural crisis” rather than just temporary “weakness,” Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said, admitting that steering the country’s economy back on track has proven harder than he had anticipated.

Merz made the remarks on Saturday in a speech before members of his Christian Democratic Union party in the Lower Saxony city of Osnabrueck, the home state of major carmaker Volkswagen. 

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