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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 12:00 Source

By Dr Cameron Murray and Aidan Morrison, cross-posted from Fresh Economic Thinking. How Australia’s electricity market got POLITICAL and cost us BILLIONS Why didn’t our experts get the same answers as those abroad on the cheapest way to generate and distribute electricity? Australians will pay hundreds of billions of dollars for new investment in the

The post Australians will pay for the politicisation of energy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 11:52 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Crikey wraps the controversy. In case you missed the back and forth yesterday, US President Donald Trump has been a touch annoyed at former Liberal PM Malcolm Turnbull telling Bloomberg the 78-year-old was “chaotic, rude, abusive and erratic” and his treatment of America’s allies would ultimately benefit China. Responding on his Truth Social platform, Trump

The post Let a thousand Malcolm’s bloom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 11:01 Source

Last month, the Australian Population Research Institute (TAPRI) released its survey on voter attitudes, which, among other things, showed that the overwhelming majority of voters do not support recent high levels of immigration or a Big Australia. Only 11% of the electorate support the current high migration settings, whereas 80% want lower migration numbers. TAPRI’s

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 11:00 Source

But still afraid. Westpac. • Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index up 4% to 95.9 in March. • Slowing inflation and rate cut lift confidence to three-year high. • Unsettling overseas news looks to be weighing on the outlook for the economy. • Sentiment towards major purchases showing a promising improvement. • Consumers’ own finances stabilising and

The post Consumers less afraid appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Last month, Australian journalist Matt Bell published the following article on the nation’s purported “skills crisis.” This was based on a report from recruitment firm Hays, which found that 85% of hiring managers grappled with “skills gaps” that continue to worsen despite a softer market and historically strong immigration. However, as shown recently by Greg

The post Australian labour shortages are a mirage appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 10:00 Source

What is the worst idea you can think of for Australia’s failed East Coast gas market? How about government’s underwriting LNG imports that will raise your bills 80%? You got it! The Australian. A Victorian government-led proposal to underwrite LNG imports could hike domestic gas prices and introduce a fresh risk of political intervention in

The post Government embraces gasmageddon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Market Ear on the roaring bear. Equity vs bond panic VIX has left bond volatility behind. Source: Refinitiv Not all “panic” is equal VIX continues surging, but skew continues to do very little. A notable volatility “anomaly”. Source: Refinitiv Term structure panic VIX term structure exploding even higher, with the short end of the

The post No blood in the streets appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 09:18 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 09:00 Source

It’s risk off across stock markets as Trump goes all Lord Farquaad aka Paul Keating admitting a US recession is all but coming due to his tariffs taunts with Wall Street falling more than 2% across the board with the NASDAQ falling 4% in one session! So much winning! European stocks are feeling the heat

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 08:04 Source

DXY held on as safe haven flows pick up despite the new super EUR. AUD crashed against everything. Lead boots stable Oil needs to be in the $50s. Commods are far too high for a US recession. Miners = dogs. EM likewsie. Junk is serene. Maybe it needs to break to flush this bearish impulse.

The post Australian dollar crashes with everything appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 06:34 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 02:53 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 11, 2025 - 00:05 Source

In January, Domain published the following chart showing how the proportion of income a median household needed to pay the median rent hit a record high 33% in Q3 2024. REA Group has released its Q4 Rental Affordability Report, which found that rental affordability is at its worst level on record, driven by surging rents

The post Aussie renters cannot catch a break appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 10, 2025 - 16:23 Source

  AUD/USD     EUR/USD     USD/JPY     GBP/USD     Gold     WTI     Brent     Australia 200     US S&P 500     UK 100     Japan 225  

The post Macro Afternoon: 10 March 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, March 10, 2025 - 16:02 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, March 10, 2025 - 15:48 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, March 10, 2025 - 15:01 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, March 10, 2025 - 14:58 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, March 10, 2025 - 13:25 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, March 10, 2025 - 13:00 Source

In the 2010 federal election, the incumbent Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, won a second term after forming a minority government with three independent MPs. A result similar to the 2010 federal election looks like the most likely outcome of the upcoming federal election. The latest Newspoll for The Australian shows

The post History repeating as hung parliament looms appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 10, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Labor greybeard, Bill Kelty, has delivered the government, especially Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers, a stinging slap across the face. Former trade union leader and economic trailblazer Kelty, whose work with the Hawke and Keating Labor governments helped usher in two decades of prosperity, described the reality of many Australians’ declining living standards as “political kryptonite”

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Renew Economy Monday, March 10, 2025 - 12:03 Source

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Renew Economy Monday, March 10, 2025 - 12:03 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 10, 2025 - 12:00 Source

In January, Domain published a series of charts showing that Australia’s housing affordability was the worst in recorded history. The national dwelling value-to-income ratio hit an equal record high of 8.0 in Q3 2024, up from a 20-year average of 6.7. The amount of time taken for the median-income household to save a deposit on

The post Australia’s housing affordability crisis deepens appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 10, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Wholesale electricity prices have been falling in recent days. However, they are still double year on year! Prices have been easing in the weak demand shoulder season as the gas cartel plays dead going into the election. However, ahead are still some very difficult problems with very severe outcomes. With futures up 25% year on

The post Gas cartel plays dead for election appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 10, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Australians have endured the largest cost-of-living shock in modern history. The following chart deflates the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official wage price index against the ABS’ cost of living index for employee households. On this measure, Australian real wages in Q4 2024 were tracking 10.1% below the peak at around Q1 2012 levels. The

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xkcd.com Monday, March 10, 2025 - 11:00 Source

 The physics department has recruited an astronomer who studies meteor fireballs.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 10, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Goldman is unusually bearish. 5 Key Themes to End the Week 1. The Risk of a Prolonged Bear Market: No Crisis, Just Pain The lack of a clear financial crisis means markets won’t experience a rapid, cathartic selloff that forces deleveraging and resets valuations. Instead, the risk is a slow, painful decline over multiple years,

The post Is Tech Wreck 2.0 here? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 10, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Via Goldman, the headline numbers and deficit breakdown. The 2025 fiscal targets unveiled during the “Two Sessions” imply the total amount of government bond net issuance quota will increase to RMB11.9tn in 2025 from RMB9.0tn in 2024. According to the 2025 budget report proposal, the MOF expects fiscal revenue growth to slow, but fiscal expenditure

The post Chinese yawnulus moves on from steel appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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