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MacroBusiness Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 12:30 Source

US President Donald Trump has flagged an increase in his ‘liberation day’ baseline tariff to between 15% and 20%. Trump said countries that do not negotiate a special deal with the US will face an increase in the baseline tariff, which was originally set at 10%. “We are going to be setting a tariff, for

The post Why should Australia negotiate another US FTA? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 12:21 Source

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MacroBusiness Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 12:12 Source

Who would want to be a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer in Australia? Not only are they dealing with intense competition from online behemoths like Amazon, Temu, and Shein, but they are still facing sagging sales growth. The latest retail trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) highlights the point, with retail sales volumes rising

The post Aussie retailers remain locked in recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 11:50 Source
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Prosper Australia Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 11:47 Source

Summary To improve productivity Australia needs to shift taxes off work and enterprise and onto the economic rents from land, natural resources, and monopolies. This principle should be at the heart of any economic reform agenda. Income tax should be rebalanced to favour productive effort over unearned gains, beginning by scrapping CGT concessions. States should […]

The post Economic Reform Roundtable submission first appeared on Prosper Australia.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The ferrous complex is in a stark reversal. The driver is a supply-side rationalisation of steel output, but it is vague. Goldman. On the macro policy stance, the Politburo required that macro policy should remain pro-growth, and its intensity should be strengthened at an appropriate time (“持续发力、适时加力”). Policymakers reiterated their pledge for implementing a “more

The post Iron ore rocked by Chinese nonulus appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 07:47 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 07:06 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that real per capita GDP decreased by 0.2% over the quarter. This was the ninth fall in per capita GDP in eleven quarters. The chart below compares the present decrease in real per capita GDP to previous episodes stretching back to the

The post Australian economy stuck in the “no growth” zone appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, July 31, 2025 - 00:01 Source

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Asian share markets are generally weaker across the board as risk markets try to absorb the impact of the latest trade “deal” from the Trump regime while also anticipating some pretty big macro and economic releases in the coming session.  Wall Street is the only light of hope for the bubble boys although we have

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 14:14 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 14:13 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Via the always excellent Charlie McElligott at Nomura. From Left-Tail To Risk-Tail… 1). The “Trump Collar” helped to compress then collapse realized Volatility off the most extremely 100%ile levels April / May, as the market reconditioned to his reaction function (selling the call at the highs with emboldened tariff rhetoric, but long the put into

The post Do hedge now appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:45 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:40 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:30 Source

As we know, Australia’s East Coast already has a suite of secretly subsidised coal power stations in NSW, VIC and QLD to go alongside heavily subsidised renewables. The reason for this is that the “duck curve” of renewable energy, which makes power super cheap during the day, then expensive in the evening, does not work

The post Albo aims for energy trinity of doom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:00 Source

ABS Labour mobility was out yesterday and shows the Great Resignation is well and truly over, if it ever was. the job mobility rate decreased to 7.7% younger workers were more mobile than older workers, with 12% of people aged 15 to 24 years changing jobs 2.2 million people left or lost a job The annual

The post The Great Resignation is over, if it ever was appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 12:02 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 11:45 Source

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said that it was awaiting two vital pieces of data before lowering rates: the June labour force report and the Q2 CPI inflation print. The June labour force figures printed weaker than expected, with the headline unemployment rate rising to 4.31%—above the RBA’s latest projection. Full-time jobs contracted sharply,

The post Benign inflation greenlights RBA rate cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 11:40 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Ferrous is up and down again. At these prices, Indian ore will flow. Any push higher and they will gush. Meanwhile, Chinese property is still stuffed. Goldman. Sales are no bueno. Inventory improvement stalling. Completions are a bit better. The Politburo is in the next few days, so look out for more yawnulus.

The post Chinese property bust continues appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The issue of productivity and its impact on real earnings has been a major source of debate among Australian economists since the Global Financial Crisis. With productivity in headline terms flatlining for the best part of the last decade, except for the lockdown and closed border-driven bump seen during the pandemic, the issue has recently

The post Australia’s economy fires on wrong cylinder appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The Australian’s Judith Sloan has challenged Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ claim that the federal government has “made a lot of progress together in our first term making our economy more productive, dynamic, and resilient”. Sloan noted that labour productivity is at 2016 levels and business investment’s share of the economy is similar to that of the

The post Jim Chalmers puts lipstick on productivity pig appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 10:00 Source

During the most recent glacial maximum, it's believed that land bridges extended from the surfaces and connected several of the spheres together.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The federal government was advised by eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman-Grant to scrap YouTube’s exemption from laws banning people under the age of 16 from using social media, which are scheduled to take effect in December. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared with David Spears on ABC Insiders over the weekend, where Albanese claimed that the eSafety

The post This is Australia, not 1984 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Australia’s economy ranked 102nd out of 145 countries on the latest Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, which measures the diversity and knowledge intensity of a country’s export mix. Australia ranked behind Bangladesh (100) and Senegal (101). The ranking suggests that Australia has become one of the least self-sufficient and sophisticated economies in the world. ABC

The post How Australia’s economy turned African appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 29, 2025 - 16:00 Source

Asian share markets are generally weaker across the board as risk markets try to absorb the impact of the latest trade “deal” from the Trump regime while also anticipating some pretty big macro and economic releases in the coming session.  Wall Street is the only light of hope for the bubble boys as earnings continue

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 29, 2025 - 10:36 Source
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