I have referenced the concept of “personal vote” and “sophomore surge” quite a few times during this campaign, and in the past, but I thought it would be useful to actually collect data and analyse how much of an effect we can detect from the swings data.
Having finished off the Easter eggs (or bunnies/bilbies) and Hot Cross Buns (though these are a year-round thing now), I ought to be turning attention back to what’s happening in the world. But that’s too depressing to look at, a view our aspiring leaders have endorsed by resolutely ignoring anything more geopolitical than the price of petrol.
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
South Australia breaks wind output record for first time in two years as new projects boost capacity
Anthony Albanese has claimed victory in Australia’s “Vegemite-gate” trade stoush with Canada, which has relented and allowed a Toronto-based cafe owner to sell the spread after initially ruling it did not comply with local food laws.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is famously bad at forecasting Australian wage growth. For the past 15 years, the RBA’s Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) has routinely forecast stronger wage growth than has occurred. The RBA continues to make the same mistakes, with Australian wage growth falling more than projected despite the nation’s low
Many people think that if Medicare works for getting sick, it must also work for dental and anxiety and ADHD and various other types of problems.That isn’t necessarily the case.One big problem for any sort of health intervention is the interested carer. They have an incentive to suggest you need treatment.In the case of classic sickness, overtreatment has been restrained through various mechanisms.
What a difference an election makes! DXY is in free fall. EUR surging. AUD follows EUR and is threatening a 2025 breakout. Concrete boots are stable. Gold is in heaven. Nobody needs an oil rally. Metals ex-copper are signaling much weaker growth. Big miner’s big bear is intact. EM meh. Junk skunk. Yields have at
The post Australian dollar headed for heaven? appeared first on MacroBusiness.
If you think the Russian army's numerous battlefield victories are a clear sign that the war is nearing its end, you are sorely mistaken. As I said earlier, the closer Russia gets to victory in this conflict, the more dangerous Ukraine and its Western backers become.
Russia deploys world's most powerful and fastest 'annihilation system'
More journalists have been killed in Israel’s genocide in Gaza than in the past seven major U.S.-involved wars combined, marking the “worst ever conflict” for reporters in history, a new report says.
The unplumbed depths of Peter Dutton cynical politics should be a matter of deep concern to genuine political conservatives across Australia. Whoever those people are (at present they appear to be in hiding), its time they distanced themselves from what the Liberal Party is becoming under Duttons leadership.