TS Lombard with the note. Trump delivered on campaign promises applying a 54% (34% “reciprocal” and 20% fentanyl) tariff rate to imports from China. The move could impact 1.5-2ppt of China GDP in 2025. How does China respond? Strong fiscal, moderate monetary, passive retaliation–for now. We downgrade our growth forecast by 20bps to 4.5% (always
Last week’s federal budget revealed that the cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) will reach $50.8 billion next financial year, exceeding the $51 billion allocated to the defence budget. The cost of the NDIS is also projected to reach $63 billion by mid-2029. The growth of the NDIS is the key driver behind
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With a hung parliament looking very likely at the upcoming federal election, there has been quite a lot of looking back at the last hung parliament in 2010.
Amongst other elements, there has been some parallels drawn between the experience of the crossbenchers in 2010 and how the current crossbench could jump if they find themselves in a position to decide who forms government this year.
The ABC has lost the plot entirely. The relationship between Peter Dutton and resources billionaire Gina Rinehart has soured over the Coalition leader’s plan to force energy giants to sell gas into the domestic market at a likely loss. The ABC also understands that Ms Rinehart’s enthusiasm for Mr Dutton has waned in recent weeks
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This week, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) released data on new house sales, which continued to disappoint. As illustrated below, the number of private new home sales fell by 0.6% in February and has shown little movement in two and a half years. Moreover, as shown by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro below, new house
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The ferrous jaws closed somewhat with all commodities last night. Chinese steel demand is pretty meek, according to MySteel. Production is a bit better but won’t be as export markets dump with tariffs. There’s a lot of front-loading that’s been done. And now for a demand hole on the other side of it.
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