The Senate count has been progressing for a week now and I thought it was about time to give an update (my previous post on the Senate is here). What is remarkable is how clear the count is. There appears to only be one state where seats are in serious doubt: the last three seats in Queensland are being contested by four parties.
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It’s now a week since the election and there are only a handful of seats that are still in play. In this post I’ll run through the counts in each of them.
Last Saturday’s election was not a landslide: far from it. While it appears the Liberal/National coalition has gained a small swing nationally, there are lots of areas which swung in the opposite direction.
So I was interested in zooming out to get a sense of how many seats had swung in each direction, and how they fit into the respective “marginal”, “reasonably safe” and “safe” categories.
I’ve defined these categories as follows:
On Sunday I published a post focusing on the chances for each party in the Senate. Unsurprisingly we are expecting a shrinking of the Senate crossbench due to the half-Senate election and the concentration of low-polling Senate crossbenchers, but it is interesting to examine the trends in how people voted.
For today’s post I’ve put together a detailed map showing the two-candidate-preferred (2CP) vote in every booth across the country.
The map can be toggled between the swings and the total vote in each booth. Most booths are based on a Labor vs Coalition 2CP (red and blue respectively) but in some places the 2CP includes the Greens (in green) or others (Centre Alliance, Katter’s Australian Party, One Nation and independents, in orange).
We largely overlooked the Senate count last night, in part due to the late hour at which votes started to arrive. But we now have a sizeable share of the vote counted and we can make some conclusions about likely winners.
As my first post today I thought I would summarise the state of play in the House of Representatives.
As of last night I had called 141 seats as part of my analysis at the Guardian. This includes 72 Coalition seats and 63 Labor seats, as well as six crossbench seats – the five won at the 2016 election plus Warringah.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in 123 electorates on Australia’s east coast. Polls will close in 12 electorates in South Australia and the Northern Territory in 30 minutes, followed ninety minutes later by the remaining 16 electorates in Western Australia.
I will be regularly dropping in her to post broad updates on the results, but you can also find my analysis on the Guardian’s live blog.
Polls have just opened on the east coast in the 2019 Australian federal election. The handful of Australians who are yet to cast a pre-poll vote will be voting today in an election expected to be relatively close.
The latest polls have Labor in the lead, but not by much. The most recent Ipsos and Galaxy polls both give Labor 51% of the two-party-preferred vote, with Essential on 51.5%. Finally Newspoll has given a small boost to Labor, giving them 51.5% of the 2PP vote.