Blogotariat

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Articles from The Tally Room

How will the states swing?

April 24, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

Australia’s states often swing in different ways, with trends noticeable at the state level rather than just at the state or regional level. For this reason, I usually choose to measure 2PP results against the state result, rather than the national result.

At the 2010 federal election, the Coalition gained swings in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but Labor actually gained ground in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

Where might sophomore surge have an impact in 2025?

April 22, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

In yesterday’s blog post I analysed the historical evidence for sophomore surge having an impact in Australian federal elections, dating back to 1998.

“Sophomore surge” refers to the phenomenon of a first-term MP performing relatively better than other candidates for their party, doubly so if they defeated a former MP from another party at the previous election.

Button pushed for WA upper house

April 17, 2025 - 12:00 -- Admin

Over five weeks after the state election was held, the WA Electoral Commission has finally concluded the counting procedure for the WA Legislative Council, with the button pushed yesterday afternoon. This resulted in the full distribution of preferences, electing the 37 members for the chamber.

The role of preferences in the two-party race

April 16, 2025 - 13:45 -- Admin

Australia has used preferential voting for over one hundred years, and in that time the party system has changed quite a bit. Since the 1950s, there has been an increasing trend of minor parties picking up votes, but until recently these votes were not enough to actually win many seats. So their main contribution, in the House of Representatives at least, was in having their votes flow as preferences to one of the major parties.

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