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Articles from The Tally Room

Booth map of the day – northern Tasmania

May 16, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

Tasmania flew under the radar in the lead up to the recent election, because of the lack of state polling in Tasmania. It was a “known unknown” to quote Donald Rumsfeld, and I do remember commenting that we didn’t know how things were going in Tasmania, but still we did not know. This did create space for some fevered commenters on this website to confidently assert that Labor was on track to be badly beaten, but now we know better.

The ever-complexifying House count

May 14, 2025 - 13:01 -- Admin

In 2022 I wrote a blog post where I explained the phenomenon of the AEC needing to do more distribution of preferences before declaring election results, and thus needing longer to complete this process. We now have updated information for 2025, and can see that this process has become even more complex this year. When you look at how this has changed over two decades, it is a remarkable transformation.

Senate count update – a left-wing landslide

May 11, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

The House of Representatives contest has been a very comfortable win for Labor, and this has also been reflected in the Senate.

One of the biggest deciding factors in the Senate is whether either the left or right can win a “4-2 split”, where their side can win four out of six. Almost all elections are 3-3 splits, although there are some senators (such as Jacqui Lambie) who don’t fit into the two sides.

Close seats liveblog

May 7, 2025 - 14:52 -- Admin

4:05 – Monique Ryan’s projected lead in Kooyong has shrunk from about 900 votes on Monday evening to just 405 today.

4:02 – In Bullwinkel, Labor’s projected lead has grown from 467 to 608 with more absent and pre-poll votes expected and very few postal votes left to count.

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