The redistribution of ACT Legislative Assembly boundaries for the 2020 election has now commenced, with submissions opening last Monday and open until Monday 4 March.
The electoral map was radically drawn prior to the 2016 election, with the Assembly expanding from 17 to 25 seats, and with the number of electorates increasing from three to five.
Ben is joined by ABC election analyst Antony Green and the ANU’s Jill Sheppard in the first episode of 2019 to discuss the New South Wales state election – in particular the rule of optional preferential voting and the increasing popularity of pre-poll voting – as well as the growing number of independents running in federal Liberal seats.
There will be two by-elections for the safe Labor seats of Cheltenham and Enfield on February 9.
I have prepared guides for both of these seats which are now open for your comments.
I don’t expect any surprise result in either seat. The Liberal Party is not standing.
The state election in New South Wales is just over two months away, and my complete guide to the election is now published here.
The guide includes profiles of all 93 seats, as well as a guide to the Legislative Council election.
Former independent MP Rob Oakeshott announced yesterday that he will be running for the federal seat of Cowper at this year’s election.
In this post I will run through some of the dynamics of that electorate which will be critical to that contest.
I’ll be using a lot of the work I have done on my guide to the seat of Cowper, which is worth a look.
It was reported yesterday that independent MP Cathy McGowan will retire from her seat of Indi at this year’s federal election.
She will be hoping to be succeeded by rural health researcher Helen Haines, who has been endorsed by Voices for Indi, the community group who supported McGowan in winning Indi off the Liberal Party’s Sophie Mirabella in 2013.
This is my last post for 2018, one final set of Victorian election maps. I’ll be back in the new year with more coverage of the New South Wales and federal elections.
Today I’m looking at the distribution of the vote for two of the larger minor parties. Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers both polled over 3%, with concentrations in certain regions that were quite high for a minor party.
First, the Hinch party’s vote is mapped out in blue:
There was a concerted effort before the recent Victorian state election from psephologists and other commentators to encourage voters to vote below-the-line.
I posted on the day after the election about the early figures, including the breakdown of below-the-line rates for each party. I won’t rehash that.
In today’s edition, I’m updating a map I produced on request to include the two-party-preferred vote (and swing) in 87 out of 88 seats.
Today’s maps focus on the performance of the Greens, who went backwards in terms of votes, yet managed to win a record number of lower house seats at a general election.
This first map shows the primary vote swing for the Greens in the 88 electorates.