Articles from The Tally Room

Port Macquarie set up for Liberal-Nationals contest after retirement

A by-election is incoming for the NSW north coast state seat of Port Macquarie.

This seat had previously been a safe Nationals seat, although it had fallen into independent hands in the 2000s. This changed in 2000, when sitting MP Leslie Williams quit the party over a dispute between the Coalition parties over koala laws, and joined the Liberal Party.

Williams was re-elected as a Liberal in 2023, despite a strong challenge from the local mayor as the Nationals candidate.

Understanding the different redistribution methodologies

The AEC published a fact sheet today with their estimates of margins for each electorate changed by the recently-completed federal redistributions.

There are a few pretty big differences between their estimates and my own, and I wanted to explain what I think is going on. The AEC were able to provide me with some of those estimates in advance to try and understand what is going on.

Werribee by-election due soon in Victoria

A state by-election will need to be held in early 2025 for the western Melbourne seat of Werribee. This by-election was triggered by the retirement yesterday of Tim Pallas, a long-serving Labor minister who has served as Treasurer since 2014.

Werribee lies on the western fringe of Melbourne and has always been a Labor seat. But this is the kind of seat that could flip at a by-election. We’ll have to see how the campaign plays out.

SA redistribution finalised

South Australia’s Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission published the final version of the state redistribution yesterday, to come into effect at the next state election in March 2026.

2025 federal election guide now live

The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.

I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.

Prahran by-election incoming

There will be a by-election for the Victorian state seat of Prahran coming up soon, likely at the start of 2025.

Sam Hibbins won the seat for the Greens in 2014, and again in 2018 and 2022. He quit the party earlier this month after revelations of an affair with a staff member.

Podcast #136: Victorian council election results

Ben is joined by Leo Puglisi from 6 News and Chris Eddy from Local Government News Roundup to wrap up the Victorian council elections.

Black by-election live

6:00 – Polls have just closed in the South Australian state seat of Black for the by-election triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader David Speirs. I will be tracking the results here tonight, but while we wait for results you can check out my by-election guide.

Victorian councils 2024 – assessing the partisan results

For this post, I am looking at how the parties have done in the Victorian council elections, and I run through a quick summary of how each council went.

As of the time of writing, all but three of the wards I am tracking have been finalised. The Wilton and Yamala wards in Frankston and the Westerfolds ward in Manningham have reported primary votes, but no preference distribution. For this analysis I am assuming the primary vote leaders win here.

The key stats from the Victorian council elections

We are now coming towards the end of the Victorian council elections. For the councils I have been covering, final primary votes have been recorded for all wards, and in the vast majority the winners have been determined and preferences distributed.

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