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Brisbane City – next day wrap-up

March 17, 2024 - 13:04 -- Admin

For this post, I’m not going to dwell too much on individual races and where they are up to, but instead look at broader trends. I’ll do another post today or tomorrow about the close races and what we’re waiting to see.

There were quite a few votes that weren’t counted last night. Almost 600,000 votes were counted for the lord mayoral election, but barely 450,000 primary votes were counted for the council election, and only about 60% of those votes had preferences distributed.

Brisbane City election night live

March 16, 2024 - 19:00 -- Admin

6:18 – There was a big uptick in pre-poll voting yesterday (which is pretty standard). More than 5% of all voters cast their vote on Friday, which means that 25% of all enrolled voters cast a pre-poll vote. Remarkably this means that the total pre-poll share has jumped from 23.7% in 2020. It does look like postal votes has dropped, but we don’t yet have a final figure.

Mapping intra-party booth results in Tasmania

March 14, 2024 - 10:30 -- Admin

In yesterday’s post I explored some of the intra-party dynamics you get under Hare-Clark when multiple candidates from the same party are competing.

In this post I wanted to map out the relative strength of different candidates from within a single party across an electorate.

There’s some similarities in style to this post I did for the last ACT election in 2020.

How often do Tasmanian MPs lose their seats?

March 13, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

One of the almost unique features of Tasmania’s Hare-Clark electoral system is the potential for voters to choose individual candidates over others in the same party, and on occasion achieve the outcome of an individual MP losing their seat to a fellow member of the same party. Even when that doesn’t happen, it’s common that multiple members of the same party are competing for the same seat.

Brisbane City – early voting update

March 12, 2024 - 15:18 -- Admin

The trend of voters choosing to cast their votes has been progressing for a long time, but there was a major shift in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic moved a lot more voters away from casting their votes on election day.

The 2020 Queensland council elections were the first elections in Australia after the start of the pandemic, and there was a massive change in how people voted.

The 35-seat Tasmanian status quo

March 11, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Tasmania’s lower house will be expanding in size from 25 to 35 at the upcoming election.

Usually when we analyse election results, a key tool is to compare the results to the last election. Swings, or changes in seat count. But with a big increase in seat numbers, it’s harder to do a like-with-like comparison when there’s a 20% increase in the total numbers. While 13 seats would’ve been a majority under the old system, it would be a bad defeat under the new system.

Podcast #114: Queensland council elections preview

March 8, 2024 - 07:30 -- Admin

Ben is joined by Alexis Pink from community radio station 4ZZZ and Andrew Messenger from the Guardian Australia to discuss the upcoming council elections across Queensland and the two state by-elections to be held on the same day.

We discuss the Brisbane City Council campaign and then touch on a number of other interesting council races and the by-elections.

The two Tasmanias

March 7, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Tasmanian state elections often play out across a north-south divide, with the two southern electorates playing out differently than the northern remainder of the state.

In this post I thought I would try and map out some of these dynamics over the last 35 years and understand how they might impact on this upcoming election.

This blog post is borrowing a bit from a post I did after the 2021 election, which you can read here.

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