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Queensland election guide – redistribution summary

August 15, 2017 - 10:00 -- Admin

Queensland has recently undergone a redistribution of state electoral boundaries, the first in almost a decade. The existing boundaries were used at three elections: 2009, 2012 and 2015.

The number of seats was increased from 89 to 93. This resulted in the creation of five new electorates, with two seats merged.

The inner-city electorates of Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha were merged into the new seat of Maiwar. Maiwar is a marginal LNP seat, with a margin of 3%.

QLD election guide posted

August 14, 2017 - 10:00 -- Admin

There is speculation that the next Queensland state election could take place in the next few months, and in preparation for this election I’ve now completed my guide to the 93 electorates which will be contested.

Each guide, as is usual, contains a history of the electorate, maps and tables showing the results of the previous election, and a list of candidates running in the seat. The candidate lists will be regularly updated over the coming months.

Projecting One Nation’s vote in the QLD election

August 8, 2017 - 18:00 -- Admin

In the process of putting together my guide to the Queensland election, I had to consider how to handle the potential vote for One Nation, who have polled as highly as 23% earlier this year and were sitting on 15% in the most recent poll. Normally I assess a seat’s vulnerability based on its margin, but a new party polling 15% is likely to upset the apple-cart, threatening seats which look very safe on paper.

Data repository update – WA, SA and Tasmania

June 19, 2017 - 10:00 -- Admin

I’ve made a number of updates to the data repository in preparation for the next round of state elections.

I’ve added to the data from the 2017 WA state election. Originally I had a limited dataset for the Legislative Council election, without below-the-line vote breakdowns by polling place, and without a seat-by-seat breakdown of the special vote for the upper house. This gap has now been filled.

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