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Swings and vote totals – NSW council elections

September 10, 2017 - 20:41 -- Admin

I’ve pulled together the primary vote totals as of this afternoon and calculated swings for each council and ward in urban NSW.

I’ve restricted my analysis to councils between Newcastle and Shellharbour, as councils outside this area are almost always dominated by independents.

Across this region, here were the total votes for the three large parties:

Party
Votes
%
Swing

Run of the board – NSW council elections

September 10, 2017 - 09:40 -- Admin

In this post I will quickly summarise the state of play in the 14 most populous councils I have analysed (excluding Ku-ring-gai, where no tickets are standing across multiple wards). I’ll be back later today with some analysis of the swings across the councils and over the coming days I’ll do deeper analysis of some of the more interesting councils.

Labor has won a majority in Canterbury-Bankstown and Newcastle, with a chance in Cumberland, Georges River and Wollongong.

Election night coverage – NSW council elections 2017

September 9, 2017 - 19:11 -- Admin

7:10pm – Very small vote in all five wards in Northern Beaches currently has Your Northern Beaches on track for 6 seats, Liberal 5, Greens 2, and two other independents. The Liberals look unlikely to be able to stitch together a majority.

6:40pm – Polls have closed forty minutes in councils across New South Wales. Join me as I track the results. We should start to see some data after 7pm.

NSW council election day

September 9, 2017 - 11:07 -- Admin

polls are open today in a bunch of councils across NSW – the new amalgamated councils and those who survived amalgamation attempts.

I’ll be covering the results tonight from 6:30pm. Today I’ll be driving around to some of the polling booths in Sydney, so check out my Twitter account (@thetallyroom) for anecdotes and photos.

I’ll also be on Backchat on FBI radio at 11:15 discussing the elections.

Queensland election guide – redistribution summary

August 15, 2017 - 10:00 -- Admin

Queensland has recently undergone a redistribution of state electoral boundaries, the first in almost a decade. The existing boundaries were used at three elections: 2009, 2012 and 2015.

The number of seats was increased from 89 to 93. This resulted in the creation of five new electorates, with two seats merged.

The inner-city electorates of Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha were merged into the new seat of Maiwar. Maiwar is a marginal LNP seat, with a margin of 3%.

QLD election guide posted

August 14, 2017 - 10:00 -- Admin

There is speculation that the next Queensland state election could take place in the next few months, and in preparation for this election I’ve now completed my guide to the 93 electorates which will be contested.

Each guide, as is usual, contains a history of the electorate, maps and tables showing the results of the previous election, and a list of candidates running in the seat. The candidate lists will be regularly updated over the coming months.

Projecting One Nation’s vote in the QLD election

August 8, 2017 - 18:00 -- Admin

In the process of putting together my guide to the Queensland election, I had to consider how to handle the potential vote for One Nation, who have polled as highly as 23% earlier this year and were sitting on 15% in the most recent poll. Normally I assess a seat’s vulnerability based on its margin, but a new party polling 15% is likely to upset the apple-cart, threatening seats which look very safe on paper.

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