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Map of the day – northern Tasmania

June 7, 2019 - 10:00 -- Admin

I received a request earlier this week to consider making a map showing the results of the map in Bass and Braddon, the two electorates in northern Tasmania won by Labor in 2016 and lost in 2019.

The map in this post shows the two-candidate-preferred vote across Tasmania, and also shows the swing in four of the five Tasmanian seats (there’s something weird going on with the booth swings in Clark in the AEC’s dataset, so I’ve left it off).

Map of the day – swings in opposite directions for Greens in Victoria

June 6, 2019 - 10:30 -- Admin

As I’ve been putting together these maps I was particularly interested in seeing what the booth map looked like for the Victorian Greens. There wasn’t a consistent story to come out of the election when it comes to swings for the Greens. The Greens had a tough ask in retaining all six of their Senate seats up for election. At the moment they should win five and possibly six, which is a pretty good outcome.

The informal rate is rising, but more votes have been counted

June 3, 2019 - 08:00 -- Admin

After my post on Friday evening about turnout levels I’ve also done some further analysis into the rate of informal voting at the recent election.

While it is true that the informal rate has increased compared to the 2016 election, it is still lower than it was in either 2010 or 2013. And the increasing rate of enrolment means a larger proportion of the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) have cast a vote in 2019 than in any election in the last decade.

The great divide in Macquarie and the big swing in Lindsay

May 30, 2019 - 08:00 -- Admin

I’m writing this post on Tuesday evening. Earlier today Labor MP Susan Templeman narrowly pulled ahead in the seat of Macquarie by just 27 votes. Who knows who will be leading when this post goes up on Thursday morning.

I’ve always found Macquarie to be a fascinating electorate, because it has long been marginal despite the constituent parts of the electorate not being particularly marginal in themselves.

Mallee moves apart

May 29, 2019 - 08:00 -- Admin

It looks like the Nationals have retained the seat of Mallee in north-western Victoria, but the race was remarkably wide open, with no candidate polling over 30% and six different candidates topping the poll in at least one booth.

Nationals candidate Anne Webster polled 28.7%, with the Liberal Party’s Serge Petrovich second on 18.4%. Labor’s Carole Hart is on 15.5%, with two independents (Jason Modica and Ray Kingston) polling just over 9%.

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