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Dalio: Peak debt, QE4 next

August 25, 2015 - 05:29 -- Admin

 From the excellent Ray Dalio: That’s where we find ourselves now—i.e., interest rates around the world are at or near 0%, spreads are relatively narrow (because asset prices have been pushed up) and debt levels are high.  As a result, the ability of central banks to ease is limited, at a time when the risks

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Houses, holes and Holdens

August 25, 2015 - 05:21 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released an empirical research paper, which examines the tendency of Aussie home owners to leverage property price increases (housing equity) into the purchase of new cars. Not surprisingly, the RBA finds a strong correlation, particularly among lower income groups: Our estimation period is aligned

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RBNZ dissects the Auckland bubble

August 25, 2015 - 05:16 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Grant Spencer, yesterday gave an interesting speech on the Auckland housing market, where price growth has been out of control, growing by 24% over the past year: And prices relative to incomes are roughly double that of the rest of New

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Auto loan arrears record surprise jump in Q2

August 25, 2015 - 05:15 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Moody’s Investors Service has released its second quarter data on the performance of Australian auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS), which revealed a surprise jump in loan arrears across all programs. The result was unusual because arrears rates typically remained stable or improved over the second quarter. Nevertheless, Moody’s believes loss rates

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Daily LNG price update (crash)

August 25, 2015 - 05:14 -- Admin

The Brent oil price is still in free fall, down 7% plus overnight to $42.26 as I write: John Kemp is of the view that markets have given up on the Saudi strategy: “It is not the role of Saudi Arabia, or certain other OPEC nations, to subsidize higher cost producer by ceding market share,”

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Daily iron ore price update (splat)

August 25, 2015 - 04:47 -- Admin

Find below the iron ore charts for August 24, 2015: Qingdao iron ore price tumbled 5.03%. Paper much the same. Dalian ended the evening session down 6 points to 361 offering some hope of stabilisation but that will depend upon Shanghai. Port stocks eased on the week but at this stage that’s immaterial. BHP and RIO fell

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China throws Shanghai to the wolves

August 25, 2015 - 04:35 -- Admin

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks. FT: Beijing capitulates after spending $200bn to prop up equities Beijing’s leaders appear to have belatedly decided it is too expensive and ultimately futile to fight gravity in the equity market, especially as the government is now intervening separately on a massive scale to stop its currency from devaluing

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Links 25 August 2015

August 25, 2015 - 04:30 -- Admin

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Dow futures tumble as Wall Street preps for meltdown – CNBC S&P 500 Index Recovers From Worst Declines Amid Global Selloff – Bloomberg Anatomy of a Market Selloff - Bloomberg View The ’dollar bloc’ was never an optimal currency area and now it is falling apart – marketmonetarist.com Worried

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ASX at the close

August 24, 2015 - 17:05 -- Admin

Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets It has been a day of record declines in Asia. Most spectacular were all of the China indexes plummeting through all key support levels. The CSI 300 went limit down at one point, with trading halted after it fell over 9%. The Shanghai Composite

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Dividend fetish cannibalising growth

August 24, 2015 - 15:31 -- Admin

Cross-posted from The Conversation: As another corporate reporting season in Australia draws to a close, the broad trend has been moderately underwhelming earnings results, combined with a rise in the earnings repaid to shareholders in the form of a dividend. During this recent reporting period Australian firms returned, on average, 73% of their profits to

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