Everybody knows that Australia is suffering from a severe housing shortage. This is clearly illustrated in the rental market, where the vacancy rate has collapsed to a historic low: It is also clearly illustrated in the next chart, showing that Australia completed only 174,000 homes in the year to September 2023, against a population increase
Asian share markets are still mixed given the reaction to the Evergrande collapse in China with Japanese equities barely moving while local stocks continue to lift slightly higher Wall Street will be looking for more positive momentum on the open while the Australian dollar is holding on to its small advance above the 66 cent
Goldman with the note. Sea freight costs have risen sharply due to Red Sea shipping disruptions, with shipping costs from Asia to Europe rising by 350% and by 100% from Asia to the US. Some commentators and investors worry that these cost increases could meaningfully raise global goods inflation, especially since inflation pressures from post-pandemic
The main cause of Australia’s rental crisis is obvious: a record increase in the country’s net overseas migration, which saw an unprecedented 518,000 net migrants arrive in 2022-23: This spike in population demand has resulted in historically low rental vacancy rates and skyrocketing rental prices: Australia’s rental problem is expected to run for the foreseeable
The global energy crash continues apace, with thermal coal (blue) at its weakest price since the Ukraine War, chasing LNG (black) lower: This is still far above global cost curves. The price will eventually settle back at $80 or so. LNG can go lower yet as well. In fact, LNG can crater over the next
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales data for December, which fell 2.7% over the month to be only 0.8% higher over the year. The result was far worse than analysts’ expectations (-0.9% month-on-month), with the annual 0.8% growth also well below both population growth (circa 2.4%) and inflation (4.6%). This means
The Australian reports that shadow cabinet ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss the federal government’s proposed changes to the legislated stage-three tax cuts, with MPs reportedly “split” over the changes. Senior sources within the Liberal Party have suggested that the Coalition will seek amendments to Labor’s legislation but is unlikely to vote against it.
For a profession based on sales commissions, Australian real estate agents are experiencing their own version of the Hunger Games. The following chart from Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro shows that for-sale listings, as monitored by SQM Research, are almost 30% lower than a decade ago: Separate CoreLogic data also shows that overall for-sale listings
Bonds are back this morning as the US Treasury delivers good news on supply: As a reminder, in our preview last night we showed that Deutsche Bank – which was indicative of the overall street – was expecting $797BN in Q1 borrowing, followed by $472BN in total Q2 borrowings. In the end, both numbers ended
Domain released its House Price Report for the December quarter, which showed that Sydney’s median house price hit a record $1,595,310 at the end of 2023. Independent economist Tarric Brooker posted analysis on Twitter (X) showing what proportion of a mortgage on a median-priced Sydney house someone earning $200,000 could afford, adjusted for inflation: “In